Category Archives: Campaigns

Who is Gov. Ige listening to?

Kevin Dayton has a good story in today’s Star-Advertiser regarding criticisms levied at Gov. David Ige’s administration (“Quiet leadership draws criticism“).

It raises a question: Just who is Gov. Ige listening to? Who does he rely on for advice? If the usual suspects are complaining, then who’s in that inner circle?

Following the money, in this case, doesn’t really provide answers.

As of June 30, 2016, the last public report available, Ige reported raising a total of just $188,841.30 since he was elected in November 2014.

And only 13 contributors had donated more than $1,200. At the top of Ige’s donor list, as of June 30, were the Island Insurance Pac and Abigail Kawananakoa, each giving the maximum of $6,000. Attorney Richard Turbin followed at $4,000, and the Ironworkers for Better Government Pac gave $3,000.

Also contributing more than $2,000 were ILWU Local 142 Pac; attorney Gordon Arakaki, an Ige campaign insider; Mary Alice Evans, an Ige appointee and deputy director of the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism; HSTA, the public school teachers union; Hawaii Airlines’ Committee for Better Hawaii Pac, Lanai Resorts LLC, and Bill Mills, chairman of The Mills Group.

Click here to see the list of all donors to the governor in 2015-2016.

Kenoi’s rehabilitation?

Here’s a little tidbit from a friend in Hilo concerning the Democratic Party’s election eve rally in Hilo.

Billy Kenoi gave the opening speech. When he circulated around before the rally, people could not get enough of him. They were lining up to shake hands, with hugs and kisses for the women. Tulsi and a considerable group of supporters were there, as were Mazie and others, but no sign
of the governor.

So, political observers. What should we make of that?

Why the projections don’t always match

Here’s an interesting look behind the numbers that have driven the election data reported by the New York Times this year (“2016’s Election Data Hero Isn’t Nate Silver. It’s Sam Wang“).

Throughout the campaign, I’ve been tracking the analysis of poll data provided by Nate Silver’s Fivethirtyeight.com and have watched the differences with data published by the NY Times and others.

Wired introduces Sam Wang, the “new” data guru driving the Princeton Election Consortium, and the ways in which his approach diverges from that of Silver.

Wang says his method differs from Silver’s in its approach to uncertainty. “They score individual pollsters, and they want to predict things like individual-state vote shares,” he wrote in his blog on Sunday. “Achieving these goals requires building a model with lots of parameters, and running regressions and other statistical procedures to estimate those parameters. However, every parameter has an uncertainty attached to it. When all those parameters get put together to estimate the overall outcome, the resulting total is highly uncertain.” By contrast, he says, PEC’s model relies on a snapshot of all state polls every day, and then makes sure unrelated fluctuations are averaged out.

Anyway, while we’re waiting for election results to start coming in, it’s an interesting read.

And when you’re done, check out this slide show of New York Times’ front pages reporting results over 41 U.S. elections.

Civil Beat poll sheds light in split between rail supporters, opponents

A new Civil Beat poll found that while voters aren’t wild about Honolulu’s rail project, a convincing majority back completing the project to Ala Moana Center.

It has cost much more than expected, its completion date keeps getting pushed back, and there is not enough money to pay for it.

What’s more, most people think building a rail line for Honolulu was either a “bad idea” (37 percent) or a “good idea” yet “troubling” due to the poor execution of the project (44 percent).

Only 14 percent of Oahu voters surveyed completely embrace rail and believe it is “progressing well.”

And yet, a clear majority (61 percent) say they want the rail line built all the way from East Kapolei to Ala Moana Center.

Just 29% said the project should be stopped at a point short of Ala Moana. That’s a somewhat surprising 2-1 margin in favor of pushing the project to completion.

So while rail opponents have been very vocal, the mostly silent majority seems to have the votes to keep the project moving.

A couple of the cross tabulations reported shed additional light on the split between rail supporters and opponents.

The data on “ideology” shows those who described themselves as “liberal/progressive” were more likely than conservatives to say rail was a good idea, and less likely to say it was a bad idea.

Similarly, Democrats were only about half as likely to say rail was a bad idea compared to Republicans and Independents.

Cross tabs

If you browse through the Civil Beat survey results and find more interesting tidbits, please share!