Category Archives: Campaigns

Kenoi’s rehabilitation?

Here’s a little tidbit from a friend in Hilo concerning the Democratic Party’s election eve rally in Hilo.

Billy Kenoi gave the opening speech. When he circulated around before the rally, people could not get enough of him. They were lining up to shake hands, with hugs and kisses for the women. Tulsi and a considerable group of supporters were there, as were Mazie and others, but no sign
of the governor.

So, political observers. What should we make of that?

Why the projections don’t always match

Here’s an interesting look behind the numbers that have driven the election data reported by the New York Times this year (“2016’s Election Data Hero Isn’t Nate Silver. It’s Sam Wang“).

Throughout the campaign, I’ve been tracking the analysis of poll data provided by Nate Silver’s Fivethirtyeight.com and have watched the differences with data published by the NY Times and others.

Wired introduces Sam Wang, the “new” data guru driving the Princeton Election Consortium, and the ways in which his approach diverges from that of Silver.

Wang says his method differs from Silver’s in its approach to uncertainty. “They score individual pollsters, and they want to predict things like individual-state vote shares,” he wrote in his blog on Sunday. “Achieving these goals requires building a model with lots of parameters, and running regressions and other statistical procedures to estimate those parameters. However, every parameter has an uncertainty attached to it. When all those parameters get put together to estimate the overall outcome, the resulting total is highly uncertain.” By contrast, he says, PEC’s model relies on a snapshot of all state polls every day, and then makes sure unrelated fluctuations are averaged out.

Anyway, while we’re waiting for election results to start coming in, it’s an interesting read.

And when you’re done, check out this slide show of New York Times’ front pages reporting results over 41 U.S. elections.

Civil Beat poll sheds light in split between rail supporters, opponents

A new Civil Beat poll found that while voters aren’t wild about Honolulu’s rail project, a convincing majority back completing the project to Ala Moana Center.

It has cost much more than expected, its completion date keeps getting pushed back, and there is not enough money to pay for it.

What’s more, most people think building a rail line for Honolulu was either a “bad idea” (37 percent) or a “good idea” yet “troubling” due to the poor execution of the project (44 percent).

Only 14 percent of Oahu voters surveyed completely embrace rail and believe it is “progressing well.”

And yet, a clear majority (61 percent) say they want the rail line built all the way from East Kapolei to Ala Moana Center.

Just 29% said the project should be stopped at a point short of Ala Moana. That’s a somewhat surprising 2-1 margin in favor of pushing the project to completion.

So while rail opponents have been very vocal, the mostly silent majority seems to have the votes to keep the project moving.

A couple of the cross tabulations reported shed additional light on the split between rail supporters and opponents.

The data on “ideology” shows those who described themselves as “liberal/progressive” were more likely than conservatives to say rail was a good idea, and less likely to say it was a bad idea.

Similarly, Democrats were only about half as likely to say rail was a bad idea compared to Republicans and Independents.

Cross tabs

If you browse through the Civil Beat survey results and find more interesting tidbits, please share!

Two modes of election de-stressing

Are you Trumped out? Over Hillarie? Just too much pre-election stress?

Here’s what you need.

The top photo: Sunrise on Kahala Beach at about 6:30 yesterday morning. Click on it to see a larger version. Can you smell the ocean? Take a deep breath and put yourself under that coconut tree for 60 seconds.


DSC00931.jpg

And when you’re ready to move on, take advantage of this Election-Free Minute courtesy of the Washington Post.

Another televised Honolulu mayoral debate unlikely

It appears there won’t be another debate between Honolulu mayoral candidates Kirk Caldwell and Charles Djou prior to next month’s general election, according to a story a few days ago in the Star-Advertiser.

S-A writer Gordon Pang reported:

Officials with Hawaii News Now and KITV, which both held forums featuring Caldwell, Djou and former Mayor Peter Carlisle before the Aug. 13 primary, said they have no plans to hold another forum before the general election. A representative for KHON said the station had not made a decision on a mayoral forum, and staff from both the Caldwell and Djou camps said they had not been contacted by the station.

PBS Hawai‘i had scheduled a debate on “Insights on PBS Hawai‘i” on Oct. 27, but Djou either declined or withdrew from the appearance this week, spurring a fiery disagreement between the two campaigns and the station.

Pang notes that Honolulu’s controversial rail project dropped out of the election limelight after Djou changed his position, now agreeing with Caldwell that this phase of the project needs to be completed to Ala Moana Center.

In a recent Hawaii Public Radio discussion of media coverage of the election, veteran reporter Denby Fawcett called this election “boring.”

And it sounds like the television stations agree.

So if they’re not throwing extra resources into covering the Honolulu mayor’s race, what will they be used for?

Pang quotes KITV news editor Mike Farrah:

“Quite frankly, it’s a matter of an allocation of resources,” Darrah said. “We’re throwing a lot at the Pearl Harbor anniversary and the Honolulu Marathon.”

It’s all a matter of priorities, I suppose.