Here’s an interesting column by David Brooks in yesterday’s New York Times (“ OpinionJoe Biden Is Stronger Than You Think”).
His pitch is straightforward. Citing several different data sources, Brooks believes the Democratic Party is much more diverse, and more moderate, than posts by those active on social media would lead you to believe. And, he argues, this accounts for much of Biden’s staying power demonstrated in polls so far.
oderates are still powerful. The Democratic Party is moving left, but about half of Democrats still say they are moderate or conservative. No candidate has ever won a nomination without strong support from these voters, while college-town candidates — Howard Dean, Gary Hart — tend to falter. In every presidential general election that Democrats have won since 1988, they carried moderates by more than 12 percentage points. In every race they have lost, they failed to do that. Biden kept his moderate credentials when many other candidates saw A.O.C. on Twitter and decided to move left.
He goes on:
Have a better theory of social change. Sanders and Warren imagine they can rally movements of progressive supermajorities to transform American politics. The reality is that if they are elected we’ll be stuck with the same 42 percent-to-42 percent stagnant political war we have now.
Biden starts with the understanding that we are a closely divided nation. He understands the elemental fact that if you want to pass laws you have to go through Congress. As Damon Linker pointed out recently in The Week, Biden’s argument is that a center-left congressional coalition is the best we can do under present circumstances. That’s a more realistic theory of change. A beloved legislator like Biden is more likely to transform the political landscape than a down-the-line progressive.
Yes, this is a moderate Republican talking, but one that has been pretty consistently opposed to the Trump debacle.
In any case, it’s a view worth pondering. And we don’t have long to wait before the first primary/caucus votes are counted.
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Yup, I saw that too. in case David Brooks is accused of being a far-right uber-conservative evil man, the NYT has pointed out the obvious before:
Frequent online commenters do not represent the voting population. It’s like getting a community’s point of view by interviewing two drunks at a bar late at night. Or, more’s the pity, it’s like expecting a stadium full of Bernie Bros. to represent all Democrats. The whole notion of “everyone I know supports [fill in blank]” is bogus.
Or think of it this way: over time, Obama went from ‘undecided’ about same-sex marriage to supporting it. It’s about getting votes first, then delivering, not making empty “Medicare for ALL” promises then not getting anything passed. The US Senate is going to stay in the hands of GOP after the election.
I’ll vote for Bernie if he ends up the Democratic candidate, but I’m not getting suckered by his promises. Bernie Sanders is a political nonachiever. Bernie Bros are like Trump supporters: They refuse to listen. The hashtag “#neverWarren” took off as Bernie allies took to Twitter to attack Massachusetts senator Warren as a lying snake. (Not kidding; snake emojis were everywhere in the anti-Warren tweets.)
When President Kennedy famously said, “Ich bin ein Berliner,” he wasn’t declaring himself to be German. He was speaking from a place of empathy.