Predictions are that here in Honolulu, the heaviest effects of Olivia will arrive on Wednesday.

Here’s the most relevant chart for the morning. As you can see, the estimated probability of experiencing winds of at least 34 knots (about 39 mph) has been increasing over the last 24 hours. The storm has not weakened at the pace initially expected. The advisories are issued every 6 hours (5 a.m., 11 a.m., 5 p.m., 11 p.m. Hawaii time).

The good news is that there’s a low probability of getting hit with winds of 58 mph or more, at least here in Honolulu.

Rain? Depends which weather model turns out to be correct. At least one shows Oahu getting quite a soaking. We’ll soon find out!

The chart and other data are from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and updated at least every six hours.