Case Country isn’t where you think it is.
But Claude quickly got the picture.

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My life change this morning. For the good. And, for regular readers-no, it’s nothing related to my current cancer treatment.

It’s the day after Hawaii’s Primary Election, and normally that involves my spending hours knee-deep in raw text files and legacy database queries.

But today was different. And that’s how the story begins.

In the past, my first task in the morning after an election, even before getting a cup of fresh coffee, would be to visit the Office of Elections’ website and quickly eyeball the tables of election data from the most recently available statewide summary of results. After a quick look through the outcomes of what were expected to be the most contested races, I would then download the text file containing raw precinct-level data also available from Office of Elections.

The next task would be to import the text file into Filemaker, a robust Mac database. My version is about five years old, but perfectly serviceable for my uses.

Once the data was downloaded into Filemaker, I could then begin converting my questions into queries instructing Filemaker how to search through and analyze the data from different directions, breaking it down to precincts or summarizing by electoral districts or neighborhoods looking for patterns. Sometimes I started with specific questions, but lots of times I just wanted to satisfy my curiosity. Occasionally I might share some findings in a post-election blog post, but more often they just provided background understanding to guide my future reporting. And many times I would be stalled out trying to write a query that produced exactly the results I was looking for.

Then the earth moved!

This morning, I skipped the whole text file/download/import/Filemaker process and decided to see how far I could get by simply letting an AI assistant do the heavy lifting.

After downloading the plain-vanilla statewide table of precinct-by-precinct results in pdf format from the elections website, I just uploaded the 498-page data table to Claude, Anthropic’s AI assistant and the dog I chose for today’s hunt.

Claude was immediately ready to rock and roll!

I had been surprised to see how handily Congressman Ed Case had fended off what appeared to be a strong challenge from State Senator Jarrett Keohokalole, and wanted to know more about voting in their head-to-head race.

Working with Claude was seamless. I started asking questions, and Claude began returning clear, detailed answers instantly.

How many districts within Congressional District 1 did Keohokalole carry?

Claude’s answer–None.

Case ran the table, winning every one of the 25 legislative districts that make up the Congressional District 1. Claude did not include the two districts that are split between CD1 and CD2 because they didn’t fit my initial question.

And Claude provided an unexpected takeaway. The areas where Case showed the greatest strength are not where most observers might assume they would be.

Key takeaway: This is a stark geographic story.

Case’s biggest margins over Keohokalole are almost entirely in Leeward and Central Oahu — Waipahu (District 36) crushed it at +40.5 points, followed by Kalihi, ‘Aiea/Halawa, Pearl City, and the Mililani corridor. These are working-class and suburban communities, not Case’s presumed home-turf advantage neighborhoods.

Notably, East Honolulu districts (18, 19, 20) — where you’d expect an incumbent’s strongest home support — only rank #9–12 on this list, with more modest margins (+16 to +20 points) despite being generally considered “Case country.” His dominance was actually strongest in the areas furthest from town.

Only 2 districts (21 and 46, not shown in top 25) had narrower margins below +8 — Case won every single House district in the congressional district, just by varying amounts.

In 1976, I doubt this geographic pattern would have been any surprise, as the leeward area at that time was considered the stronghold of the AJA-generation of Democratic Party organizers credited with the behind-the-scenes grassroots work that powered the party’s rise to political dominance. But the public perception is quite different today, making these findings somewhat startling.

Here are the districts where Case outpaced Keohokalole by the largest percentage margins. The full list can be found here.

I chose Claude for this assignment more or less at random, and I expect other AI assistants would provide more or less similar answers. That’s probably a hypothesis worth testing another day. What I keep coming back to, though, is Waipahu and Leeward Oahu. The strongest support for this four-term congressman considered to be at the more conservative end of Hawaii’s Democratic Party spectrum strongest ground wasn’t in the politically purple districts in East Honolulu — it was in the traditional Democratic Party strongholds from Pearl City to Waipahu. The progressive drift of many Democratic activists appears to carry less sway out thata way.

Twenty minutes with a PDF and an AI assistant got me to that insight almost before I’d finished my coffee. A few years ago, that would have taken me the better part of a morning, if I got there at all.

Giving back: Contributing to the future of the Maui News

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The Maui Nui Media and Creativity Collaborative, the new nonprofit owner of The Maui News, has announced a $10,000 fellowship for a Maui County-based journalist to dig deeper into the 2026 Maui County Council and mayoral elections.

The group’s news release on Saturday credits a donation Meda and I have made that is funding the project.

The inaugural Maui Nui Media and Creativity Collaborative Investigative Elections Reporting Fellowship will fund seven weeks of original, investigative, print-first reporting focused on the candidates, issues, and decisions shaping Maui County’s future. Made possible by a generous donation from Ian Lind and Meda Chesney Lind, the fellowship aims to strengthen accountability in local elections, support emerging journalistic talent, and give Maui County residents the information they need to engage in the democratic process.

Our involvement began when I saw that a nonprofit organization had stepped up to rescue the Maui News from final extinction, with ownership changing hands at the end of July. It’s going to be rough and rocky road, as they say, and we wanted to contribute to the efforts to give the newspaper another chance for longer term survival as a community-based nonprofit.

So we sat down and made a decision. We would dig down into our retirement savings and offer a grant. Tax deductible for us (and, yes, I did check their IRS 501(c)(3) credentials) and probably much needed on their end.

It’s hard to say whether it will increase the odds of the nonprofit route being successful, but we can hope.

I’ve been in communication for years with one of the nonprofit’s board members, attorney Lance Collins, so sent him a quick note offering a $10,000 grant. We put no strings on our offer, described simply as “to support a reporting project that would otherwise not get done.”

He forwarded my offer to board chair Axel Beers. And off we went.

I initially thought it would best be timed to follow a shake-out period as the newspaper adapted to the new ownership, but in speaking with Axel it became clear the greatest impact could be made by jumping in early.

Axel came back with their intent to use the funds to offer a fellowship for pre-election coverage of Maui County races during the important pre-General Election period.

The process will hopefully produce seven weeks of news that would otherwise not be written. It will also provide the new owners with an indication of journalists and aspiring journalists they might be able to draw on later.

And it meant that our contribution would flow directly through to a veteran or aspiring reporter, with a cash stipend of $10,000, articles appearing on the front page, and lots of networking opportunities while working directly with the newspaper’s managing editor. My years as struggling in the freelance world recognizes these as benefits I’m now glad to be passing on to someone else.

And perhaps it will encourage other potential donors to follow suit.

Here’s the full press release with details on how to apply. The deadline for applications is September 7. 2026.

Saturday Sunrise at Waialae Beach Park

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And a couple of our morning dog regulars made appearances as well!

Equipment is brought in several times a year to dredge sand out of the stream and open the stream mouth to the ocean so that it doesn’t block the stream during heavy rain, which can lead to overflows and flooding upstream

And you can see that the sun is getting closer to Koko Crater, which it will reach in a few days.

A note on the park plover. Previously two plover appeared to divide up the area on the Diamond Head side of the park, away from the parking lot. One plover was usually on the side of the park closest to Kahala Avenue, the other on the part closest to the ocean. They seemed to understand the geographic division.

This year, there’s a pair on the road section. That plover apparently returned with a junior partner. Now I have to stay on watch to see whether the makai plover has also returned.

Dawn and Dogs

Feline Friday is here despite some obstacles

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I have realized that if I have a bad day, Ms. Kiko shares in the pain. It means that I spend much less time in front of my MacBOok Air while seated at the dining table. This is the spot that allows Kiko to jump into my lap, do a couple of turns, tuck her head down and cover her eyes with her front paws, and go to sleep.

Yesteray this happened only once, so she was frantic for me to sit down and let her settle. I felt bad throwing her out. But she felt worse, I guess deprived is the right term.

In any case, you’ll see Kali back to her lounging spot in the garage. Kali and Kiko gave good tongue this week!

And there were no cat traumas apart from poor Kiko’s lap deprivation.

I’m out of energy, so won’t extend this discussion.

Let’s get right to the cats.

Feline Friday: August 7, 2026