A marked decrease in international travelers to the U.S. following Trump’s initial ban on travel from seven countries, already seen in data from different parts of the travel industry, could end up taking a bite out of Hawaii’s visitor industry.
The problem seems to be that the U.S. is suddenly perceived as an unstable and unwelcoming place for international visitors as a result of the ban and the resulting global publicity.
The New York Times reported last week that travel bookings to U.S. destinations dropped after Trump’s ban was announced. Online searches indicating potential interest in future travel dropped as much as 47%, according to the Time’s review of data from a number of travel sites. See NY Times, “After Travel Ban, Interest in Trips to U.S. Declines,” February 20, 2017.
The short-term weaker demand for travel to the United States aside, the bigger concern for travel analysts is the ban’s potential to damage the country’s lucrative tourism industry in the coming years. Statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, part of the United States Department of Commerce, show that tourism-related spending in the United States was $1.56 trillion in 2015; tourism created 7.6 million jobs in the United States that same year.
According to Adam Sacks, the president of Tourism Economics, part of the economic research firm Oxford Economics, President Trump’s executive order is part of a broader policy platform and “America first” rhetoric that is creating international antipathy toward the United States and already affecting traveler behavior.
Earlier this month, his group conducted a study of travel to Los Angeles County and found that the county could suffer a potential three-year loss of 800,000 international visitors as a direct result of the ban, the equivalent of $736 million in tourism spending.
“It doesn’t take a lot of uncertainty or adverse sentiment to affect travel decisions,” Mr. Sacks said.
In a tweet on Sunday, economist and columnist Paul Krugman observed: “Tourism and education are surprisingly big U.S. exports, almost surely creating more jobs than, say, coal.” His tweet included a chart showing income from travel.
A friend emailed me wondering what the situation is at Honolulu International Airport? Is the “welcome” less welcoming than it used to be?
These are important issues for Hawaii’s overall economy, and any negative results are going to quickly trickle down to the rest of us.
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One of Hawaii’s biggest global tourism competitors?
M-E-X-I-C-O
yet another reason for ‘Merka to build The Wall, if you’re a total (bleep)
He is tripping up our entire country every time he speaks.
So watch for a big stumble this afternoon when he’s addressing Congress . . . “The State of the Union is . . . (adjective of your choice)”
In today’s news release from Hawaii Tourism Authority for January visitors – probably not significant (yet):
“Arrivals by air from all other international markets outside of Canada and Japan dropped nearly 2 percent to 110,986. Spending from these markets fell just over 4 percent to $265.7 million.”
About to take an international trip and am uneasy over what may happen upon our return to the US.
CBP/ICE doing their jobs is one thing. Unfettered belligerence + indiscriminate, warrantless searches are something else altogether.
January tourism numbers might have been more reflective of the strength of the US dollar than “Trumpian” announcements.
http://m.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/02/trumps-travel-ban-seems-have-saved-tourism-business
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Flight demand is generally down in 2017, but that all happened before the travel ban. In fact, right after the travel ban was announced, flight demand increased about 17 percent. This is exactly the opposite of what the Times reported.
This is why I almost never pass along any news story with numbers attached to it unless I check the numbers myself.”
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“I should add that Hopper’s own analysis isn’t much better. Patrick Surry says: “Flight search demand from international origins to the US has dropped 17% overall since Trump’s inauguration, and the implementation of the travel ban, compared to the final weeks of the Obama presidency.”
Huh? The only way you can get close to that is to compare the peak day of January (+8 percent) to the day of the Robart TRO (-11 percent). Or perhaps by comparing the pre-inauguration average (-1 percent?) to the worst post-inauguration day (-18 percent). Either way, it says nothing at all about the effect of the travel ban.”
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And this comes from Mother Jones, which is about as liberal a news source that there is.
This ain’t your father’s NY Times, sad to say.
First Month of Trump Economy: Visitor Spending up 10.1%—Arrivals Jump 4.9%
http://www.hawaiifreepress.com/ArticlesMain/tabid/56/ID/19233/First-Month-of-Trump-Economy-Visitor-Spending-up-101mdashArrivals-Jump-49.aspx
This visitor data is for the month of January.
Most Hawaii tourists from the mainland do *not* book their hotels only 1 month in advance. Evidence:
http://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/default/assets/File/reports/visitor-satisfaction/VSAT%202015%20Companion%20Tables_FINAL2.xlsx
You’re buying into more lies, which usually means ignoring negative information. the churches did not like Galileo.
Stock market up 2% today on Trump speech to Congress…
When Obama took office on Jan. 20, 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped to 7,949, the lowest inaugural performance for the Dow since its creation. OBAMA FAULT!!!
Where is the Dow eight years later?
21,142 as of now. Back in 2009, everyone somehow knew Trump would be President someday. I guess the pigs definitely flew!
Trump will never, ever match the stock market increase under Obama and, yes, I’ve already put my money where my mouth is.
The stock market under Obama gave me a realistic retirement balance ….. and without a single penny from that Evil Communist Gubment.
Yes, Obama’s a real evil communist anti-white socialist libtard hippie Black Panther from Punahou. That’s how he became close friends with Joe Biden.
Thanks!!
This talk of Trump effects is absurd. It depends.
Are you talking ahort term, medium term, or long
term? The effects could be different for each time
frame.
My feeling is it will be better long term, but as
they say, in the long run we’re all dead.