The City Clerk’s office is going full-speed towards a special mail election to fill the now-vacant District V city council seat.
The Star-Bulletin reports:
Candidates seeking to fill his District 5 seat can begin filing paperwork Monday, said acting City Clerk Bernice K.N. Mau. The deadline for candidates to file is June 25.
Ballots to roughly 49,000 registered voters in the district will be mailed out soon after the voter registration deadline of July 8, and voters will have until Aug. 7 to return them.
Information about the election procedures and deadlines can be found on the city’s Elections Division web site.
Candidates will have learned from the experience of the recent District III mail election. In regular elections, traditional wisdom has been that advertising targeted to hit jut before election day has the most impact. But in a mail election with an extended period to return ballots, when is the best time to spend precious dollars on those ads?
Candidate John Henry Felix paid for an advertising barrage in the final days before the ballot deadline, and ended up in 5th place with just 7% of the total vote.
According to a chart in the final report on the District III special election, half of all ballots cast were received in the first three days.
![[text]](/images_2009/district3.jpg)
So it would appear that prime time for advertising in a vote-by-mail election is just when the ballots are mailed, and in the few days before they are received by registered votes. In a very close election, though, advertising through the period may be vital. Note that over 16% of ballots were received in within three days of the deadline which, in a close election, could have been decisive.
The clerk’s report adds another interesting wrinkle:
For this special election, return postage was pre-paid (business reply) by the City. However, in the future, a decision would need to be made whether to continue this practice.
How would having to add your own stamp impact election participation? I’m sure we can guess the answer.
Assuming that elected officials could tap their existing campaign funds for this special race, they could have a distinct advantage.
Here’s a quick look at the campaign bank balances reported at the end of 2008 by elected officials who may be eligible to run in District V:
Rep. Belatti $9,677.79
Rep. Saiki $21,372.90
Rep. Nishimoto $40,667.26
Sen. Fukunaga (-$9,507.46)
Ann Kobayashi $19,256.97
Will any of them jump at the chance?
I’m sure we’ll see soon.
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Interesting — three dissident House members (Saiki, Nishimoto, and Au-Belatti) who might see the Council as a place to make a difference — won’t be the first time for those out of power to look for greener pastures/ public service opportunities (Toguchi to Education Superintendent, Abercrombie to Congress, Cayetano to Lt. Gov., Case for Gov. and then Congress, Carpenter to Big Island Mayor — but what about the Manoa legislators (Choy, Taniguchi) or former Manoa Rep. Caldwell?
Sam,
At the Manoa legislative update meeting today, our new Rep. Choy made all sit through an hour and 45 minutes of one powerpoint slide at a time of budget data which was presented practically line by line. Finally he allowed a question on another matter than the budget. He was reminded of his promise made at the district council emergency session in which he was elected to Caldwell’s seat that he would follow the Democratic party of Hawaii’s platform. He received copies of both the state and the Oahu county platforms for the Democratic party, with something less than enthusiasm. He stated that he could not vote for equal rights as it was a faith based decision for him. This comment was not challenged.
I think he would make a fine auditor. Perhaps Marion Higa could use some help.
There’s no one on that campaign fund list that floats this Manoa resident’s boat. I can’t see the House dissidents getting in: Nishimoto might actually have to work if he went to the Council, Saiki might have to learn some people skills if he went there, and Bellatti would have to learn not to be a professional self-marginalizer. Kobayashi didn’t have the decency to demur on her interest when asked less than 24 hours after Duke passed, not to mention that she bailed on us at the last moment last year. I don’t know if even Fukunaga has the energy to be a year round, accomplish-nothing busy body; the Legislature only provides her with 60 days a year in which to spin her wheels.
As for Choy, Mahina is right; if the job involved nothing but crunching numbers (admittedly really important right now), he’d be fine. Taniguchi has too much of a good thing going in the Senate; he embarassed himself on civil unions this year and it won’t make a whit of difference to his standing there. As Managing Director, Caldwell will become Acting Mayor when Mufi files for Governor, a perfect position from which to run for the job full time (that’s how Jeremey Harris succeeded Frant Fasi).
Maybe someone completely new/different would be in order.