The City Clerk’s office is going full-speed towards a special mail election to fill the now-vacant District V city council seat.
The Star-Bulletin reports:
Candidates seeking to fill his District 5 seat can begin filing paperwork Monday, said acting City Clerk Bernice K.N. Mau. The deadline for candidates to file is June 25.
Ballots to roughly 49,000 registered voters in the district will be mailed out soon after the voter registration deadline of July 8, and voters will have until Aug. 7 to return them.
Information about the election procedures and deadlines can be found on the city’s Elections Division web site.
Candidates will have learned from the experience of the recent District III mail election. In regular elections, traditional wisdom has been that advertising targeted to hit jut before election day has the most impact. But in a mail election with an extended period to return ballots, when is the best time to spend precious dollars on those ads?
Candidate John Henry Felix paid for an advertising barrage in the final days before the ballot deadline, and ended up in 5th place with just 7% of the total vote.
According to a chart in the final report on the District III special election, half of all ballots cast were received in the first three days.
So it would appear that prime time for advertising in a vote-by-mail election is just when the ballots are mailed, and in the few days before they are received by registered votes. In a very close election, though, advertising through the period may be vital. Note that over 16% of ballots were received in within three days of the deadline which, in a close election, could have been decisive.
The clerk’s report adds another interesting wrinkle:
For this special election, return postage was pre-paid (business reply) by the City. However, in the future, a decision would need to be made whether to continue this practice.
How would having to add your own stamp impact election participation? I’m sure we can guess the answer.
Assuming that elected officials could tap their existing campaign funds for this special race, they could have a distinct advantage.
Here’s a quick look at the campaign bank balances reported at the end of 2008 by elected officials who may be eligible to run in District V:
Rep. Belatti $9,677.79
Rep. Saiki $21,372.90
Rep. Nishimoto $40,667.26
Sen. Fukunaga (-$9,507.46)
Ann Kobayashi $19,256.97
Will any of them jump at the chance?
I’m sure we’ll see soon.

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