Well, perhaps that’s somewhat of an exaggeration, since every vote doesn’t make a difference in every race.
Except when it does.
Consider the Honolulu City Council race in our district, which was decided by the last batch of ballots counted and reported on the final General Election printout just after 4 a.m.
The incumbent was reelected by just 22 votes.
The incumbent and challenger split 36,692 votes almost exactly in half. The winning margin of 22 out of the 36,692 votes comes out to just 0.059% of the total.
Another 2,908 voters left the race blank, declining to vote for either candidate. If just eight-tenths of one percent of the blank ballots had gone to the challenger, the election outcome would have been different.
That is painfully close. But a win is a win. That’s what elections are about.
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If Ozawa wise he would understand that he’s not returning to office by mandate. He was scared visibly about losing this race—which he might on a recount—because he knows he’s not an entirely forthright representative of his constituents.
Elections ain’t horseshoes. A win is a win is a win. Why should Ozawa change his M.O. because of his margin of victory? Term limits will force him out of his seat in ’22, regardless of how brash or humble Ozawa chooses to be.
It’s hard to assess the impact of those glossy mailings from candidates. But I’m wondering if Tommy Waters’ strategy helped him or hurt him. There seemed to be four themes of his mailings. The first theme was that he’s super-enthusiastic. Unfortunately, he made that point through photos of him frolicking near the ocean, including leaping high into the air. A bit over the top, so to speak. The second theme was that he has multi-ethnic support–he used mailers showing him with stalwarts from various ethnic groups, culminating in a mailing combining a number of such groups. The third theme was that Natalie Iwase, a candidate for the position who didn’t survive the primary, supports him. The fourth theme was a hard-hitting direct attack on an Ozawa claim. The first strategy (beach acrobatics) may have raised questions about his seriousness. The second strategy (touching ethnic bases) seemed forced and blatant. The Iwase endorsement was a nice touch, and the hard hitting attack on Ozawa at least had the ring of seriousness to it. I wonder what the pundits thought of the Waters campaign.
Well, in terms of basics, Waters walked the district. I happened to be home the day he walked up to the house. His campaign canvassed the area at least once more before the General Election. Trevor Ozawa never showed his face, as far as I can tell. At least in our part of the district. This is campaigning behind the glossy mailers.