Last week, the University of Hawaii, Chaminade University, and Hawaii Pacific University all announced that on-campus classes would resume in the fall, perhaps in a hybrid of in-person and virtual settings.

But the announcements seem more aspirational than definitive, given the uncertainties of the coronavirus and the prognosis for the slow step-by-step reopening of our community that is just now getting underway. Whether students will be ready to return, given health and concerns, is one question. Another is whether faculty are going to be eager to re-enter the “You bet your life” scene that reopened university campuses could be in just a few months. And, even if all are willing, it’s unclear whether there is enough available time and money to make necessary alterations to classrooms and other public spaces across the campuses to accommodate required social distancing, along with procuring and providing for the testing and contact tracking that will be a necessary condition of reopening.

Meda already had plans to retire, so the “return to the classroom or not” issue doesn’t impact her directly. But others we know have been weighing the issues and the options. It’s high-anxiety time for many.

There are a good number of senior faculty in the “high risk” age groups, others caring for parents who are vulnerable. And faculty of all ages are rightly concerned with the risks of being exposed to the virus in a newly reopened campus and then bringing it home with them.

The University of Hawaii Professional Assembly, the faculty union, hasn’t yet addressed the university’s planning for a return to in-person teaching and learning.

The chancellor of the California State University’s 23-campus system has announced that they are proceeding with planning for a mostly-virtual fall semester.

And the chancellor of the University of California system told CNN “it’s likely none of our campuses will fully re-open in fall.”

From the statement by CSU Chancellor Timothy P. White:

Consequently, our planning approach will result in CSU courses primarily being delivered virtually for the fall 2020 term, with limited exceptions for in-person teaching, learning and research activities that cannot be delivered virtually, are indispensable to the university’s core mission and can be conducted within rigorous standards of safety and welfare. There will be hybrid approaches and there will be variability across the 23 campuses due to specific context and circumstances.

Some possible examples of potential exceptions – and only when there are sufficient resources available and protocols in place to assure that rigorous health and safety requirements are in place – include clinical classes with training mannequins for our nursing students such that we keep students on track for licensure and entry into the state’s healthcare workforce; essential physical and life science laboratory classes enabling degree completion and entry into the energy and bioscience fields; access to kilns and other unique facilities to enable students in the performing and creative arts to explore and express the depth, breadth and beauty of humanity; hands-on experience with unique instrumentation and senior capstone projects for engineering, architecture and agriculture students; and access to the blue-water hands-on interactive simulator for boat and ship handling, to provide students with knowledge, understanding and skills necessary for the maritime industry and required for licensure by the US Coast Guard and UN International Maritime Organization.

And William G. Tierney, Professor Emeritus at the University of Southern California, says bluntly in a column published this week that opening the campuses is not a viable option.

Even the most optimistic of epidemiologists have two opinions about the remaining months of 2020: mass gatherings should be prohibited, and people over 55 and/or with pre-existing conditions should continue to stay indoors. We also know that individuals under 25 are least likely to become sick with the coronavirus and are most likely to flout requests to stay indoors, wear masks and avoid public places such as beaches and parks.

College presidents are unsure about what to do with their campuses in the fall, and uncertainty breeds anxiety. No one has a crystal ball, but with what we know, what should happen on the nation’s campuses in the fall is increasingly clear. The option of students returning to campus in the fall is not viable, regardless of the economic implications.

It’s going to be instructive to see how the University of Hawaii system fares in the upcoming state budget, and what decisions are made in the weeks ahead by other universities across the country, all grappling with the same set of issues.

All are under pressure to retain and recruit students, as overall enrollment is expected to be below current levels, and keeping students is really a matter of survival for many, if not most, campuses. It could be that putting on a brave face and touting on-campus classes for the fall is a necessary in such a competitive environment in which students ideally prefer both in-person learning and the social experiences associated with college life. But whether it’s realistic remains to be seen.

One thing is certain. It’s going to be a scramble going forward.