This early phase of the Abercrombie-Hannemann 2010 gubernatorial battle royal is already giving me the creeps.
Do you remember what happened the last time around?
It was 1986, and Congressman Cec Heftel resigned in order to come back and run for governor.
A special election to fill the short remainder of Heftel’s term was scheduled for the same day as the primary election.
![[text]](http://ilind.net/oldkine_images/supersenator/super112807s.jpg)
It was a nasty campaign, with Mufi hurling drug-innuendo and long-haired-haole stereotypes at Neil (who was already many years past his “Super Senator” persona, having served in both the state Houswe and Senate) and rumors/attacks/smears undermining Heftel’s effort.
When the votes were counted, Neil won the special election and spent several months as a member of Congress, but Mufi won the primary election and the right to face the Republican opponent in November.
Mufi’s negative campaigning had alienated a hefty chunk of Democratic voters, and in the general election face-off moderate republican Pat Saiki beat Mufi for the right to represent Honolulu’s normally Democratic 1st Congressional District.
Okay. Here we are 24 years later, and the Office of Elections says there’s no money for a special election, so it might be delayed until September’s primary.
Charles Djou is no Pat Saiki. But you can see various ways this year’s election can end up with strange results.
In the Congressional race, could strong Democratic candidates split the field and allow a Republican to carry the special election and take that mantle of incumbency into the general election? Actually, Democrat Ed Case seems more likely to take votes from Djou, giving Senate President Hanabusa a strong race. It’s a race that could turn nasty, with overtones of the original Neil-Mufi fight.
Could a candidate repeat Neil’s feat and win the special election but lose the general? At this point, anything seems possible.
Then there’s the Neil v. Mufi rematch. Could the primary campaign exacerbate divisions among Democrats and cause enough to withhold their votes in the general to give the GOP candidate a winning boost in the process?
Much of this, of course, is really positioning for those two U.S. Senate seats which will be open, one way or another, within the next few years.
What a wild year it’s going to be.
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No contest. My mind is made up:
Neil for governor.
Case for congress.
Funny how some people can make up their minds before they even know what the choice are. Very suspicious.
Yes, Neil for Goveror.
But I have very serious reservations about Ed Case. He’s a member of the Board of Directors for Small Business Hawaii, of which Sam Slom has been exec. director for decades. One can only presume, therefore, that Ed was a party to the disgraceful anti-transit “study” that SBH released last week which, defying all evidence to the contrary, actually claimed that transit would pollute MORE than automobiles. I’ve had several conversations with Ed and the moment a view is expressed that conflicts with his you can literally see him zone out and stop listening.
Then there’s the matter of Ed’s assuring Dan Inouye that he was going to run for re-election to Congress when he had already printed campaign material to run against Dan Akaka.
Jim, too bad if that’s the case (pun intended). However, what’s the alternative?
Can’t stand Djou, and Hanabusa is not that articulate.
Mufi needs to be permanently retired. Along with Ding-A-Lingle
Case would be a Republican in any other state … how does Hanabusa stand ideologically?
I have received a lengthy email from Ed Case in which he denies the story that he misled our delegation about his Senate intentions … and I’m more than glad to take him at his word.
Saw on TV that Cayetano showed up at Case’s headquarters opening today. Can’t help but wonder if there’s any truth to the theory that he brokered a deal whereby Neil would step down early after giving Case a heads up, Case would be up and running in no time, and Case would then endorse Neil and/or campaign for him, or some such.
No idea if it’s true, but seems like a good enough theory.
As to Neil’s claim today that he’s quitting Congress because there’s been a “total lack of leadership” back in Hawaii, it seems like there’s more than a grain of truth to the theory that this is driven more by the appearance that his campaign has been dead in the water and needs a real push of some sort.
Any, not sure what quitting Congress does for leadership here, unless you win.
I haven’t seen that stupid “super senator” stuff in years. I respectfully disagree that Neil ever got beyond that stage of political/mental development. I also think it’s pretty funny that you would accuse Hannemann of a “nasty campaign” and “hurling drug innuendo,” when Neil’s own political brochures were, at one time, decorated with marijuana leaves.
Anyway, I don’t think drugs will be an issue this time. The people will have a clear choice between a Mayor who has been working, effectively, to better Honolulu (which is 75% of the state), or a creature of Washington DC and servant of mainland special interests looking to retire.
I dont think the drug thing will come into play in this election Ian.
The thing that perplexs me is that we all wanted Neil to run against Lingle in 2006. But he told it was unwise for him to give up all the senority he had built up in Congress. Now, he has even more senority and his party controls both chambers…and he leaves his post 7 months before the filing deadline? He knows the special election will cost at least 2 million. Not exactly the image of fiscal responsibility.
I really think this was Cayetanos doing. It accomlishes a few things. It screws hanabusa who Ben has a long standing feud (see Hanabusa v Cayetano). She may have to voluntarily resign her Senate position to campaign depending on the timetable. This helps Case, who Ben likes. And they probably thought that maybe they could force Mufi into making a decesion and we all know that if Mufi were to resign now rail would be in trouble – Ben has oppossed rail since his days in the House. If that was their hope, they miscalculated. Mufi isn’t going to make a decision untill rail is well on its way to being built….
Ian,
Thanks for providing a link to the Ka Huliau special edition criticizing Heftel. I recommend everybody download it for their archives. And read it. This issue, written by Roland Kotani, is often confused with the so-called “Heftel smear.” Honolulu Magazine once wrote an article claiming the authorship of the Heftel smear was “finally exposed” when Grace Kotani, as part of her confession to murdering Roland, had told detectives she had typed up the Ka Huliau text.
Anyone who bothers to read the issue will see Heftel was criticized for his high absentee rate and for voting like a Republican. “Hard-hitting”? Yep. A “smear”? No way.
The so-called “Heftel Smear,” a totslly separate, anonymous mail-out on the eve of the 1986 Democratic primary, alleging sexual misconduct by Heftel, deserves a close examination by students of Hawaii politics. I suspect it has not received such scrutiny in recent years for two reasons. First, the subject matter is distasteful. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, it is more useful to rumors of the Smear as a weapon against the so-called “Democratic Machine,” than to follow the actual evidence. The best evidence, as reported at the time by both papers, lead back to a xerox machine in Charles Marsland’s office, his Executive Assistant at the time, Rick Reed and the Chris Butler Hare Krishna group. I spelled this out in more depth on Dave Shapiro’s blog in 2006:
http://blogs.honoluluadvertiser.com/volcanicash.php/2006/09/07/case_keeps_going_postal#c3390
Sorry for hijacking your comments thread. But you mentioned the “rumors/attacks/smears” against Heftel without much comment and I couldn’t help but jump in.
Love to Meda and the cats,
Bart
I seriously hope that this race doesnt get nasty. But if this move by Neil is any indication, hes already getting desperate. If he or anyone goes negative, lets hope Ian and other media outlets tell the truth – I loved how the AP did fact checks on the presidential candidates statements this past election!
Neils got bigger problems then Mufi however, and frankly it comes done to what executive exerince does he have and what ideas does he have? After Lingle, Hawaii wont fall for the ‘change’ mantra wihout some substantive ideas to accompany the slogan (I hope!)
Bart, I see the article in question was written by Clinton Maeshiro, Roy Takumi and Dan Kiyomura.
What article was written by Kotani?
Is that the same Roy Takumi who is now a state representative?
Mitch,
Sorry for not responding earlier, but I had not returned to this thread until today, when I saw your question.
I misspoke when I said Roland “wrote” the article. Roland was the founder and editor in chief of Ka Huliau. He had officially left that position by the time this issue came out. I THINK he may have been working for the State Fed of the AFL-CIO at the time, or already working for John Waihee’s election campaign. Once Waihee won, Roland went to work in the Communication’s office of the Governor.
But Ka Huliau remained his baby and he had a hand in getting that issue out, even if his name was not on the masthead or on the byline of the article..
Nothing I am saying here is meant to disparage Roland or Ka Huliau. I think the special edition was a valuable piece of hard-hitting, but fair analysis. What upsets me is how Grace Kotani’s “admission” that she helped type up the paper on their home computer gets misunderstood as evidence that Roland was involved in the so-called “Heftel Smear.” No, that is NOT what she said!
Again, sorry for responding so late. Hopefully, somebody will see these comments, buried in the “back pages” of Ian’s blog.