An automated telephone poll commissioned by Civil Beat found Neil Abercrombie leading his Democratic rival, Mufi Hannemann, by a 48%-31% margin, according to a CB update published today.
The automated poll, which tapped 1,226 likely voters, “was conducted for Civil Beat by Aloha Vote, a Hawaii subsidiary of Merriman River Group (MRG), a Connecticut research organization. The margin of error is +/- 2.75 percent.”
I suppose there are methodological issues that could be raised, but the poll certainly suggests a definite shift in the momentum of this race.
Civil Beat reported Abercrombie topped Hannemann among self-identified Democrats and Indpendents, while Hannemann was strong among Republican voters.
Discover more from i L i n d
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Of course republicans like the tall one, he is one of them… But when they find out about his “faith” oh well that will tax their support… And republicans do not enjoy taxes. Besides, they must take out a republican ballot in the primary to insure that their candidate gets the republican nomination…
This is very good news, but it ain’t over ’til its over.
Just wait ’til the “independent” hit pieces start flying (you know, the ones put out by people with no official role in the campaign), to be complemented by a flood of syrupy ads of the official variety.
Don your waders and put on your gas masks, it’s gonna get deep, smelly, and downright poisonous.
I don’t believe in polls, but “Holy Cow”.
Looks like the Republicans want to steer clear of this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fR8k0AKRPlk
Kimo,
What was on the video? It has already been removed from YouTube.
Too bad Mufi didn’t run as a Republican, as his beliefs are so much closer to the Republicans.
I remember when he was sucking up to Dick Cheney when he came here and spoke at the Convention hall.
I know a few principled Republicans who won’t cross over but if they did, they’d vote for Neil. They disagree on a few issues but are not willing to sacrifice good judgement and sound process for a few crumbs.
Hope the rest of the crossover Mepublicans feel the same.
I’m no sure it holds true in today’s hyper-polarized political climate. but for years, I was aware of a lot of Republicans who, while disagreeing with Neil, respected his forthrightness and his guts. They mighta disagreed with him on a lot of issues, but they knew he was a straight talker. And, depending upon his competitor, a lot of them voted for him.
I think the squabble within HGEA over their endorsement of Mufi is the flip side of the same perception. The leadership (and membership) KNOW Neil is philosophically labor-friendly. But he is also likely to disagree with them at various points. Mufi is actually more pro-management in his outlook. But his uncritical support for almost ANY “development would mean jobs for th building trade union members. And he is pragmatic enough to recognize the RealPolitick need for a good working relationship with the unions, at least during an election.
It brings to mind Jack Hall’s alleged comment: “I’d rather deal with a whore than a liberal. At least with a whore, once you’ve bought them, you know they’ll do what you want. With a liberal, you have to constantly reassure them that you love them.”
Or something like that.
That 48-31 looks a lot closer to the impression that I get too.
Mufi is going to get his posterior handed to him.
There are Mormons voting for Neil because they don’t trust Mufi . Unless Mufi agrees to pay their rising taxes and bills, thinking Mormons don’t buy his kine of violin playing or waving the religion card.
http://www.IndependentKamaaina.blogpsot.com exposes some in Mormon country.
CORRECT WEBSITE is:
http://www.IndependentKamaaina.blogspot.com
blogspot, not blogpsot
The breakdown by party helps explain why the Mufi campaign is actively encouraging Republican crossover. And why the GOP leadership is trying to frustrate it.
jonthe bru’s point would be valid, except there really aren’t many competitive races on the goP Republican ballot to keep their voters in their primary. John Carroll has no chance against Aiona, the one officially anointed by Governor Lingle and the GOP party leaders. Sam Slom’s call for people to vote for Carroll must be seen, at least in part, as working WITH the GOP leadership’s call for Republican voters to take a GOP ballot.
But the open discussion among Republicans over cross-over voting make it clear to me that their considerations are purely pragmatic. They have abandoned any pretense that their is an ethical question about the appropriateness of Republicans interfering in the Democrat’s selection of THEIR candidate.
People sometimes accuse professional politicians of being cynical, amoral creatures. The lack of an ethical dimension in discussions of crossover voting demonstrates a lot of voters are at least as unprincipled as the politicians.
I know, that was sad sort of joke.
I keep hearing people question the methodology but I haven’t seen anyone- including CB- detail exectly what their methodology was or if it was any different than other reputable polling companies.
Whjat leads you to question it Ian?
Andy:
Many Hawaii voters have always been unwilling to announce how they’ll vote to pollsters. Add to that group those of us who hang up when a machine is calling, and there’s a good deal of uncertainty about the randomness of the population that actually answered.