Wow!
I did not expect Mufi Hannemann to get smoked like this!
I would certainly like to understand how the Hannemann campaign crashed so badly. He had the high visibility from his two terms as mayor and earlier years on the City Council, he had the big money, and he had most of the big endorsements. And he still got soundly trounced. Even if he had gotten all of the Republican votes cast statewide, he still would have lost.
So what happened?
Turnout. Only 41.8% of registered voters actually cast primary ballots. So nearly six out of ten voters stayed away. It would appear that many of those were probably Mufi’s voters. Unfortunately, without precinct data to see if turnout was low in areas where Mufi has drawn his votes in the past, it’s difficult to draw any conclusions.
Momentum. I don’t know how you can quantify the shift towards Abercrombie in the final days of the campaign. The late flow of money was one indicator.
Rail. I would guess that the way Mufi pushed rail cost him votes, although the Panos for mayor campaign, which was the closest to a single-issue anti-rail test, pulled less than 20% of the Honolulu mayoral vote. So it’s doubtful that rail was the primary factor.
“Familiarity breeds contempt.” Honolulu residents probably know a lot more about Mufi than they do about Neil. In this case, it didn’t turn into a plus for the former mayor.
“Negative” turnoff. Hannemann’s campaign seemed to lose its way after the negative public reaction to the “compare and decide” mailer, and the awkward apologize-but-keep-distributing response. I wonder whether the campaign had other attack ads planned that were scrapped in the wake of “compare and decide”.
What happened to the “shock and awe” that the Hannemann campaign promised? There was anticipation, then nothing. What did that mean?
All comments appreciated.
And data is in scarce supply. Trying to access primary statistics at the Office of Elections web site this morning returns this message:
So it goes.
Oh, and did I mention being pleased that Gary Okino is being sent into retirement after his God-based challenge to Blake Oshiro failed?
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Mufi’s problems were simply: 1-how he tried to railroad rail, 2-negative campaigning, 3-I look like you.
I agree. The way he pushed rail down our throats, the ungodly amounts of money spent on development contracts to specific companies, the negative campaigning and the “look like you” speech. The latter reflected poorly on him and on the entire campaign. At that point, I knew I didn’t want him for Governor.
I noticed that placard up on the Elections Website LAST night (around 11:30pm or so, maybe later). It occurred because Iwanted to see the voter results for the Republican gubernatorial race, which was nowhere to be found on the Staradvertiser.com website.
On their site, they only carried (and as of 7am this morning carry) the Democratic gubernatorial numbers.
I’m sure it’s because they only had an extremely limited amount of space to run numbers in their banner box and they figured far fewer people would be interested in the raw numbers of the Republican race.
It is not at all reflective of what they deem important for readers to know about. I’m sure.
Anyhoo — what’s up with the Office of Elex making it a log-in access point for those numbers? Hawaiifreepress.com had a .pdf spreadsheet of all the numbers last night, up through the 2nd readout, after I scoured the TV sites for the same info w/ no luck.
great sense of relief here!
Neil Abercrombie and Duke Aiona are clearly on different sides of the political spectrum — but I personally can live with either one
a lot of people can deal with a leader not reflecting their views — but nobody wants to live in fear of being beaten down for expressing them
While both sides did some negative campaigning, I am hopeful that this is actually evidence that the public is tired of Rovesque incessant negative style campaigning and that the pendulum has swung in the other direction — and about time. Also, it is interesting to me that the last time we had a candidate who did not feel beholden to big special interests (Ben Cayetano) who was also a Dem we had one of the most interesting gubernatorial terms in recent memory. Neil may need this independence to tackle some huge issues — the first of which I think is the massive overhand in state pension and health insurance for retirees overhang.
Where did that whumping come from? It was amazing to see the response at a losing candidate’s election night party we attended before heading on into town to Abercrombie’s. I think SigOth and I were the only ones cheering when the first printout for the top two races went up on the screen. Most of the people in that room were Hannemann supporters.
Take a look at the returns in SD 25 – it looks as if the Goppers did pull Burro ballots because of the huge percentage of blank ballots in the race.
Certainly, the weakest candidate won. Oh, well, no sense in not having two Republicans in the Senate come January.
The House races, on the other hand, are going to be somewhat different. I see a loss for at least three Democrats and one Republican which will wind up meaning a net loss of twofor the former – possibily including your rep, Ian. Fortunately, there will be very few times a veto override will be necessary in an Abercrombie Administration.
Wonder how Charles Djou is going to evaluate the Primary outcome?
Off to the Unity Breakfast – look forward to reading the comments, esp. from the Hannemann supporters.
Interesting analysis on SD25. I was surprised to see that outcome, but your reasoning makes perfect sense to me. Wonder if the numbers can show that in other districts too for the Gov and LG race?
I don’t think it’s possible to read the minds of those who don’t cast their votes. Decent polling would tell us something about that, in fact if it hasn’t been done, I wonder why. Media always notes low turnout. I also wonder about that. Low turnout is an indication of …. what, precisely?
Same for how come Mufi’s moola didn’t bring home the bacon for him. If there were a budget for polling, we might find out, otherwise maybe not.
All we can say definitively is “the people have spoken” and slog on to November.
Any bets on dirty tricks just before the general election?
I talked to many people about this race, and many folks believe, as I do, that Mufi is just too ego-driven. That was the biggest single issue. Some believe that this focus on self extends to corruption.
Some, who might not otherwise have voted, were confirmed in their opposition by the “I look like you” speech and the “compare and decide” pamphlet. Rightfully, the press made big issues of these.
As far as Oshiro and Okino are concerned, God was clearly pre-occupied with something else this time around. If He pays attention in November, then Aiona will be our next governor. We can all pray, though, that something—a good game of celestial golf, perhaps?—will divert Him.
I think that the result simply reflects a visceral, negative reaction to Hannemann’s personality and style of campaigning and government. Now that he has lost I feel sorry for him, but I am also assuming that his ego has the tensile strength to spin this loss in such a way that it remains intact. The best news of the evening was Okino’s loss to Oshiro. As one who is happy that I was raised a Christian (but who would have been equally happy had I been raised a Shin Buddhist), it astonishes me how many contemporary, political Christians like Okino, Hannemann, and Aiona can wrap themselves in a certitude which subverts the essential humility of faith.
The voters compared and decided.
The general election is still a tough campaign.
There is still much work to do, the attacks will not be from Aiona directly but from the non connected groups.
Shucks, no mufioso to kick around anymore.
Maybe God was sending a message to Gary and friends – He’s not on their side after all and He doesn’t approve of what they’re doing & saying.
Three words for you. “Sierra Club Endorsement.”
🙂
Weary of Mufi, may he disappear from news as did Jeremy Harris.
All roads lead to “Compare and Decide”.
I know many of his family members and he is a friend to my community, so I was sad to see people on stage crying and such during his concession speech.
But he does not deserve to be the governor. That mailer was an indication of his lack of maturity, to be sure. But also an indication of how he views the people and the state of Hawai’i. While preying on racial tension has almost attained meme status in the US Continent, I believe it’s an outdated form of politics here in Hawai’i. Two white males were voted into the primary last night. On it’s face, it looks as if we moved backwards, doesn’t it? Except that those men (unlike Mufi) have broader interests that extend to the Kanaka Maoli, Hawaii’s children and elderly, and the complexities of Hawaii land and how to use or not use it.
But shifting gears, Ian, I’m surprised you’re not mentioning the numerous appearances by Ed Case! I think Akaka may just be announcing his retirement. If that happens, we’ll see Ed and Mufi running for his seat in which case, I may find myself one of those 41% staying home. 🙂
Isn’t politics interesting?
In a fight between Ed and Mufi I would vote Ed.
I agree with many who say the next big political battle will be for a US Senate seat (or two.)
US Senator may be the best political job in the USA.
Can’t wait to here Keith Rollman’ s excuses or spin on things. I’m guessing he’s gonna disappear for a while. Mufi (and his campaign peeps) blame him for the loss. Must be hard knowing your being too clever by half was perceived to be the reason for Mufi’s big loss.
That’s the thing about negative operators, you’re expected to fall on your sword to keep the appearances of plausible deniability for your boss. That’s why it’s important to make sure the boss is worthy of the sacrifice.
The Caldwell campaign blames Keith Rollman too for their loss. There’s a lot of high paid city staff who now blame Mufi for the guilt by association and for their jobs being in limbo due to Rollman’s antics in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Visited the Caldwell campaign last night and the animus towards the Mufi campaign people was palpable.
There must be a lot of city workers who were counting on moving on up to the East Side of the State Capitol and the Fifth Floor with Mufi. Now they won’t even have a job at the City with Peter Carlisle coming in to clean house. Very sad, more collateral damage in the wake of Mufi’s ego.
Revenge must have been sweet for Ed Case.
Rollman will be offering his “services” to Aiona…..I can see it now, Atomic Monkey redux, sent out by a new political group…..
The Sierra Club endorsement might have had some impact, but the hit piece its leader recently authored for the local fish-wrapper was so substantially misleading as to be dishonest, and one of the most negative campaign pieces produced during this election cycle. Gloat if you want, Robert, but it’s nothing to be proud of. I expect better than trashy propaganda from a respected and long-established environmental organization with such potential, and I suspect many others do too. I really wonder how your board of directors feels about it.
let’s play a game! Which large corporation will hire Mufi and in what position?
How about Waste Management. And the job, Public Relations.
Just a joke, please forgive the slip…
Helping Hands Hawaii has an opening……..Dan can make him ED