Richard Rapoza, communications director for the Hanabusa campaign, responded to today’s previous post about the Democratic Senatorial primary.
I saw the piece on your blog today about the primary contest between Colleen Hanabusa and Brian Schatz. Chatter is fun, but let’s keep it in context.
Mainland pundits cast an eye toward Hawaii occasionally, and try to handicap races based on the two or three bits of information they can glean before moving on to the next state. They miss what’s going on among voters, and they have no grounding in the unique complexities of Hawaii politics. For example, you mention Sabato’s citing Colleen’s margin of victory over Charles Djou in the 2012 General Election. It’s pretty clear that Sabato didn’t consider that Djou was a former incumbent, and that Hawaii’s First Congressional District is actually pretty competitive for Republicans; the district elected two Republicans since statehood, while the Second District elected none. Colleen also increased her margin of victory over the 2012 election. So while they may question the strength of her win, that characterization ignores the facts.
It’s also questionable at this early stage to talk about which candidate has what advantage. I’d direct your attention to the 2010 Special Election in CD1, where the conventional wisdom was that Ed Case was clearly the Democrat to beat in the race. Ahead of Colleen in the polls, supported by the DCCC and an unnamed White House insider, endorsed by the daily newspapers. Still, the results speak for themselves. Colleen is in Congress.
Folks like PaiaGirl and Down With Tyranny will make anonymous comments, but the question is always whether they have an axe to grind. I think you’d agree that the opinion of anyone who refuses to put their real name to a comment should be taken with a grain of salt.
At this point, with about a year to go before the election itself, we’re going to see a lot of prognostication, speculation, rumors, and guesses. Some will be valid, some will not. We’re also going to see polls of various kinds, and they too will range from the somewhat believable to the highly questionable. Consider that Hawaii’s major news blog boasted poll results that showed Ed Case beating Mazie Hirono in the 2012 Senate primary. Again, look at the results: they were off by 20 points, and it is Senator Hirono, not Senator Case.
I play the political guessing game as much as anyone, but I also know that it’s like the daily horoscope: for entertainment purposes only. The real action is taking place among voters all over he state. It’s going to be their decision, and they’re not talking.
Take care.
Richard Rapoza
Director of Communications
Hanabusa for Hawaii
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I have met Hanabusa at a dinner years ago. She struck me as a cordial and capable person.
Still I’m amazed her sweet heart and legally questionable financial deals with Ko’olina developer Jeff Stone of the Broken Trust fame are not brought up. These are pretty serious folks. The same goes with her husband’s real estate deals with underworld figures.
Sounds like the mud slinging and muck racking begins with charges that are neither substantiated or vetted. Also, please post your real name so we all know who you are and where your sympathies lie.
Try Google Jeff Stone Colleen Hanabusa. There is an quite lot of material on her questionable financial dealings with him. I tried to post the links but Ian’s spam filter balked. There considerable substance there so in my opinion Chris is neither slinging mud nor raking muck.
Dear Mr. Rapoza,
Regarding your implication that because I post with the name, PaiaGirl, somehow what I say lacks legitimacy, I note you did not respond to any of the SOURCED accusations in my posts.
In fact you bolster my point that, by quitting on her House seat, Rep Hanabusa is leaving that seat open for the GOP to take…thus prolonging the GOP majority that so frustrates her.
It’s interesting that you brought up Ed Case, who GRACIOUSLY STEPPED ASIDE to allow Rep Hanabusa to take the seat — an action that Hanabusa would do well to emulate lest she suffer the same castigation and longterm disapproval that Case suffered.
The Civil Beat polls that were so off have no relation to the facts of Rep Hanabusa’s situation. She is losing because (and these are facts – not speculation and not polls)
1. Schatz has been endorsed by 24 unions and progressive groups.
2. Most of these organizations endorsed Hanabusa in her House race.
3. Some of these organizations asked her not to run for Senate and indicated a willingness to endorse her if she ran for House in 2014.
4. She voted yes on the FISA renewal just before the wholesale spying on Americans was revealed and many of her constituents hold it against her.
5. She voted in favor of the GOP’s Regulatory Relief Act that put the kabosh on increased EPA coal burning standards — which directly flies in the face of the Sierra Club’s main objective: reducing Climate Change gasses.
6. Schatz voted against FISA and warned of its dangers
7. Schatz has made Climate Change his priority.
8. Every candidate who gets both the union endorsements and the Sierra Club endorsement WINS.
Now here’s the only speculative part: I opined that the Sierra Club had a no-brainer choice based on the above facts – that it would endorse Schatz. Perhaps I do not know something that Rep Hanabusa knows but it looks pretty cut and dried to me: She’s not getting the endorsement.
So (here’s where my logic classes come in)
Schatz has the union vote.
Schatz will get the Sierra Club endorsement (my speculation)
Everyone who gets both Labor and Sierra Club endorsement wins
QED
Schatz will win.
So why would a LOGICAL person leave her safe seat, risk getting all the Dems pissed off at her by letting the GOP get a crack at it and run for a seat that it is clear she can’t win?
Mr. Rapoza says, “The real action is taking place among voters all over the state. ”
And who gets these voters out and voting?
The labor unions, progressive and environmental organizations to which they belong.
And who tells the organizations who to endorse?
The voters who belong to the organizations.
So let us once again apply logic:
You say: voters decide
I say voters tell organizations who to endorse
Fact is organizations endorsed Schatz.
QED
Voters are going to vote for Schatz.
I thought Peter boylan had signed up to be colleens campaign spokesperson? Or are he and the inouye folks slowly backing off on their heavy handed support of hanabusa?
Has Richard rapoza taken a leave of absence from his highly paid taxpayer salary in her official congressional office?
I am paid separately to work for both the campaign and the Rep. Hanabusa’s Congressional office; I work less than full time for each. We cleared it with House Ethics first, and it is not an unusual arrangement in the House. Applying guidelines provided by House Ethics, I work closely with our Congressional chief of staff to ensure that we keep Congressional and campaign work separate. For example, if reporters call me with campaign questions while I am in the Congressional office, I arrange to call them back and leave the federal building before I do so; they are very understanding. I do not use Congressional resources for campaign work.
If at any point the respective workloads of the Congressional office and the campaign make it impossible to juggle both duties, I will take a leave of absence from the office.
Peter Boylan was and is a valuable and welcome campaign volunteer. He and I are very comfortable dividing up our duties as the situation requires.
Peter’s just a volunteer? Peter’s wife’s on staff though, right? Or was it his sister? I just listened to his dad as a speaker at a luncheon. Daddy Boylan disclosed his bias – but I cant remember who he said had what positions, but it certainly seemed like quite a Boylan-family affair.
Uh, I think his point was that it is way too early to make sweeping statements like “she can’t win.” (Maybe not too early to say it, but certainly too early to take those statements as fact.)
Also, as a “lefty” and former member of more than one labor union? I don’t think I ever knew or cared who the Sierra Club or my unions endorsed. My unions certainly never asked *me* who they should endorse — the leadership decided on their own. And I always voted exactly the way I wanted to.
(Looking back now at the last governor’s race, the two unions I was a member of apparently disagreed. I expect that there will be a similar split in labor support for this election, too.)
Basically, it’s too soon to tell, and statements to the contrary are guesses. And *really vehement* statements to the contrary are just wishful thinking.
As the congresswoman’s spokesmodel pointed out, this is chatter for political nerds. It’s the equivalent of me talking about how I plan my fantasy football draft.
Hilo, Kona, Wailuku or Lihue ain’t Honolulu. Surprising the negative vibes for the former senate president from Neighbor Islanders is not being weighed at all.
The U.S senate seat is for all of this state, not just its urban center.
Just ask former supporters of gubernatorial front runners like Fasi, Heftel and Hannemann.
Hugh Clark – yes Hanabusa teamed up with Lingle to pass the illegal “Exempt the Superferry from an EIS” law.
That still rankles the neighbor islanders who got stuck with the traffic snarls, parking problems, disruption of their harbors and are STILL feeling the effects.
We’re still feeling the effects with those $40,000,000 Chinese-made barges STILL blocking our limited dock space and Lingle having torn down the shelter for our less-than-container-load goods)
So Hanabusa starts off with a big negative outside of her home territory of Oahu.
I feel like her supporters and Communications Director are not addressing these very real bars to her election.
It’s like they’re sticking their fingers in their ears and going “La, la, la, la” to drown out the message that they are getting from everyone except the Inouye people. That message is:
Rep Hanabusa – we need you, for the good of the state and the good of the country to stay in your House seat rather than risking a Republican getting it.
I just hope that behind the scenes more realism about her chances prevails and she is considering this.
Paiagirl: unlike you, I have not made up my mind at this point. Both candidates deserve my vote. I have always been impressed by Hanabusa’s abilities as a labor lawyer and legislator. Schatz has impressed me with his ambitions and energy. I will wait to hear more from the two campaigns before deciding. BTW, I have been a member of the Democratic Party of Hawaii since 1959.
To help you compare and contrast:
FISA Reauthorization: Hanabusa YES. Schatz NO
GOP’s Regulatory Relief Act: Hanabus YES Schatz not in Congress but has said that Climate Change is a priority (This Act tried to prevent EPA from strengthening pollution rules on coal-fired boilers)
Hanabusa voted for the FISA amendments not the reautorization. Big difference. The amendments set up a reporting mechanism for all of these NSA programs. A vote yes supported more oversight. A vote no was to keep these programs under the radar. To wrongly portray Hanabusa this way is ridiculous. Ask Schatz why he wanted to keep these programs from more transparency and congressional oversight.
Er, no.
The FISA amendments made legal what had been going on, ILLEGALLY. They did NOT provide more “oversight.” They basically said the operations no longer needed oversight. Voting YES on the FISA amendments was a vote for the intrusive programs which are only now becoming public knowledge, due to the risks Ed Snowden has taken on.
I first got on Brian’s political train in AUGUST, 1998. We share many personal, political & professional ideas/positions/stances on dozens of issues.
We need Brian to stay where he is – and Colleen where she is.
Please post your real name so we will know who is part of Schatz’s “brain trust” from the sounds of it you are implying you are part of his “inner circle” of supporters or advisors.
This election cycle I am not involved other than walking in the Kailua Fourth of July Parade this coming Thursday. My understanding is that his core campaign members with the exception of Andy Winer are young & experienced Democrats who will be around 35- 40 years from now. I’ll be gone well before the 2016 regular election.
PaiaGirl…down-girl….take it easy…deep breathes….its a loooong marathon until next-NEXT November. Dont get ahead of yourself calling Brian the winner – Brian’s camp certainly hasnt. Every endorsement is hard-earned, and while Brian continues to rack um up, elections are still, at its essence, about connecting in meaningful ways with voters across this State. That said, I remain BUMMED that this race is even happening, and I know Im not alone. They are both quality, intelligent leaders, both decent human beings, both people I enjoy and am proud represent us in DC, working their okoles off for Hawaii. Unfortunately, shes made her decision to run, but I continue to wish Colleen and Company would have accepted the twist of fate, managed the disappointment internally, and then come back home to run for Gov in 4 years.
And Russel – I suggest that you can stop asking for people to post their real names. Ian’s blog allows for anonymous postings. I believe he used to require real names but did not have the level of reader engagement his site now enjoys since opening it to anonymous input (Ian, correct me if Im wrong about this?). Still, as the campaigns build and as election day draws closer, it will become more obvious which camps are more effectively utilizing social media, as a strategy, including actively engaging in blogs like Ian’s.
OK, hipoli. Points well taken. Am taking a big breath now 🙂
Yamashita – you assume wrong.
Too early to tell.
I’m with much ado, I don’t care who my union endorsed. I will decide on the candidate. Schatz promoting himself through these “endorsements” kind of turns me off. Leadership didn’t ask me who I wanted them to endorse.