An article from Slate.com caught my eye this week: “California’s Next Megadrought Has Already Begun.”
Overall, it’s a pretty grim read.
California’s cities have more than enough water to withstand the current drought and then some. They simply don’t use that much. Not true for agriculture, which uses 80 percent of California’s water—10 percent of that just on almonds. Though it’s still a national powerhouse, fed increasingly by fast-depleting groundwater supplies, the state’s agriculture industry has likely begun a long-term decline due mostly to simple math. Abnormally dry conditions have dominated in 11 of the last 15 years, and the cuts have to come from somewhere. Agriculture is the elephant in the ever-shrinking room of California water.
But isn’t agriculture also a political and economic powerhouse in California? If ag goes into a major decline as a result of continued drought, what’s going to happen to the state’s already shaky economy? Will corporate agriculture begin shifting assets to areas with more stable water supplies? There will be a real estate ripple through the central valley, and more. It’s hard to see where this ends unless it’s several years of above average rainfall, something not in the cards right now.
And other areas of the Southwest? Are cities like Phoenix living on borrowed time?
California has now imposed mandatory restrictions on watering lawns. The Sacramento Bee reports:
California regulators on Tuesday ordered every water agency in the state to restrict how often customers can water their landscaping, an unprecedented move that marks another milestone in the severe and ongoing drought.
The decision was adopted unanimously by the State Water Resources Control Board and will take effect in about 45 days. Officials at the water board said it is the first time any state in the nation has imposed an emergency water conservation requirement on every local water agency within its borders.
A Los Angeles Times editorial calls it “just a taste of what’s to come.”
A U-T San Diego editorial cites several types of available policy responses, including pricing strategies to reduce water use, desalination, purification and recycling, and controlling waste.
To what extent is Hawaii looking forward to the potential for an extended drought here? Climate change may lead to a decline in annual rainfall. As all of these California stories say, it’s way too late to address the water issues when you’re in the middle of an extended drought. The planning, and the investment, really needs to start long before the rain stops.
We lose water every day from leaks resulting from our aging infrastructure. We fail to capture what are likely large amounts of runoff that goes to the ocean instead of being saved and purified. Has Hawaii County altered its policies in light of their experience with drought over the past several years? Maybe folks from there and Maui can share their experience.
It’s all sounding like an apocalyptic science fiction yarn as modern society hits the revenge of the desert.
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WRT “We fail to capture what are likely large amounts of runoff that goes to the ocean instead of being saved and purified”: Let’s not forget that natural in-stream flows have their value, too.
I saw a documentary not too long ago that addressed drought, among other things, but most people aren’t ready to hear about the cause – or the fix.
With land developers paving hawaii’s aquifers full speed ahead, we are in for interesting times
We lived in Manoa for a time. Each morning the rain would cascade over the edge of the roof, into the ground (the gutters could have used cleaning…). It was glorious to witness the fertility of the valley, fed by those almost daily rains.
But the water was wasted. Why, in Manoa, are people not capturing that runoff to use at least for washing and watering lawns? Why use and pay for municipal water? On the Big Island we’ve seen how people do this. Here on Oahu homeowners pay high water rates willingly.
Should drought conditions persist, both conservation and use of roof runoff through catchment ought to increase, but so far, there’s been no sign of that happening here.
Well, it’s not like the 50,000 permitted new housing units on the Leeward side need water.
When my parents lived in Woodlawn they were dependent on a rain water cistern because BWS hadn’t progressed that far — just like the Volcano country on the Big Island.
It is true that people keep coming to Honolulu, and we keep building homes for them to live in. But we are planning water systems to meet that need, and we do not approve buildings without the BWS certifying that they have the water needed for those homes.
Honolulu has a very successful program of reducing per capita water use. BWS records show water use plateauing while population grew in recent years.
BWS planners are well aware of the likely impact of climate change (expected to be a reduction of 5% in total rainfall) and are adopting policies to conserve potable water, increase efficiency of water use, protect aquifer recharge, and guard against pollution of water sources.
In addition, the City has adopted low impact development standards that are required of most new construction which require retention on site of storm waters from the most frequent storms, with retention for use in landscape irrigation.
The East side of the Big Island gets lots of rain, of course—average rainfall near the Hilo airport is 120’’ per year. I suppose that even if we receive considerably less rain, the underground aquifers that supply our water will be adequately replenished. The County Department of Water Supply taps into those aquifers to supply water to Hilo’s residents. But many people in rural East Hawaii, in Puna for example, are not served by the county water system. Those people use catchment systems to obtain their water. Recently we have heard people talk about having to haul water because their catchment systems were not capturing enough water during the current dry spell.
The last four months have been unusually dry at our place, so I’ve had to spend considerable time dragging hoses to put water on our bamboo beds. The County Department of Water Supply is keeping track. They called to alert us to the big increase in our water consumption. (I think the main objective of such calls is to prompt customers to check for leaky commodes or leaks in their pipes.)
I suppose that drought will cause water to become a major issue in West Hawaii. One current water is the controversy over control of the Keauhou aquifer.
Ian’s query about drought and water issues prompted me to consult my copy of the “Atlas of Hawai`i” (Third Edition, 1998), edited by Sonia P. Juvik and James O. Juvik, published by the University of Hawai`i Press. I highly recommend its overview of water in Hawai`i. It includes a fascinating overview of our groundwater system—how the groundwater is replenished, the sustainable yields, explanation of the structure of the aquifers, etc.
I checked to ascertain whether a later edition of that atlas was available. I was shocked to discover that there is no later edition and that “The Atlas of Hawai`i” no longer is being published.
Some of that mapped information is available on line these days.
For example, see the Rainfall Atlas of Hawaii at http://rainfall.geography.hawaii.edu/ . The page includes links to other on line maps maintained by the UH Department of Geography.
Another source is the Watershed Atlas of Hawaii at http://www.hawaiiwatershedatlas.com
Finally, the USGS has an online Groundwater Atlas of the United States that includes a Hawaii section which can be found at
http://pubs.usgs.gov/ha/ha730/ch_n/index.html
“With land developers paving hawaii’s aquifers full speed ahead, we are in for interesting times”
This is nonsensical…pavement doesn’t make water disappear. Think about it. It still drains somewhere and percolates downwards long before it can run into the ocean. That might not sit well in terms of confirmation bias but it’s the facts.
We have an abundance of water resources, even more than the conventional models the Juviks used in their time. Dr Don Thomas, using magnetotelluric survey technology, has shown a much different process of water movement and water storage in the Hawaiian islands.
As long as our islands catch moisture laden winds from the ocean we will have constant replenishment of our surface water and our lens.
What we don’t have is an abundance of pumps, tanks, and pipelines to transfer the water from where it is to where we need it.
When it comes to water in Hawaii the sky is not falling…. Only rain from the sky.
It does make a difference whether the ground is paved or not, especially if the ground is over the Pear Harbor aquifer and in the area that receives 50 inches or more rain per year. These are the areas that recharge the most important water source on the island.
Oahu’s history tells us that we cannot take for granted that we will always have plenty of water because of “moisture laden winds from the ocean.”
Water that rushes off the land into streams and drainage channels does not percolate into the aquifers. That is why permits now include conditions which require developers to use low impact development practices which hold storm water on site.
That is also why we have the protected forest reserve areas. At one point in our past, excessive development had dramatically reduced native forests and significantly reduced the sustainable yields of wells. Replanting and protection of the forest areas to capture rainfall, and hold the water on the land was an important part of the strategy for restoring potable water supply for Oahu.
We do need to be concerned about maintaing and conserving the sustainable yield of our water resources. Regulating the use of lands important to aquifer recharge by requiring that the amount of paving is minimized and water storage and perculation is maintained or increased makes sense, especially given that climate change is likely to increase the chance of drought.
From the current Oahu General Plan:
From the public review draft of the proposed revised Oahu General Plan:
If we have enough water, then there’s no need to remove the words “natural drinking water” from the Oahu General Plan.
Lopaka
I won’t argue this out with you, do the work yourself or remain opinionated but ill informed.
Google:
1/ Oahu acreage in Ag land use district
2/ Then Oahu acreage in Conservation
3/ Then Oahu acreage in Urban
What’s the ratio of (essentially) unpaved acreage (AG + CON) to partially paved (say, 50% or even 75%?) U?
How’s the earth’s recapture of our rain assets to recharge our lens looking?
Fact is, heavy downpours lead to surface runoff whether it’s a paved or unpaved surface. Spend some time in the mountains in the rain. Even if you don’t, drive H3 and look at those streams that erode the mtn. They are due to water that doesn’t percolate. It’s natural. Pavement isn’t though, I acknowledge that. You should recognize though that C&C as well as State agencies require mitigation, and it works.
Urbanization in Hawaii has not lead to water shortages. Poor infrastructure development and allocation of existing resources has.