I’m not sure whether having lived through a series of somewhat similar crises helps or hurts understand and cope with the current coronavirus craziness.
We were around as the world dealt with SARS, H1N1, Ebola, as well as the Black Monday stock market crash in 1987, and the meltdown in 2008-2009.
I can especially recall the 1987 stock market crash, where more than 20% of the market’s value disappeared in a single day of trading. Meda and I arrived early for a presentation on the UH Manoa by a visiting history professor we had gotten to know. When we arrived, he had just gotten off the phone with his son on the east coast who called with news of the stock market crash.
As we stood in the hallway, our friend mused, “I wonder what happened to professors during the great depression?”
The question just hung in the air, since there didn’t seem to be anything any of us could do.
And somehow we survived. The macro disruptions were greater than those that we felt directly.
This time feels different. I’m probably more anxious about the economic impact on Hawaii by the current disruption of travel than by the health threat of the coronavirus, although we’re in that demographic group of 70-somethings considered at high risk, and perhaps I should be more worried about our mortality.
But the state is still over-dependent on tourism, and a major disruption will drag down all parts of the state budget. We can hope it will only last a couple of months, but I fear the impact could be prolonged on all the businesses and individuals who exist down the travel industry food chain.
So we’ll hunker down and hope for the best, while waiting for some better clues about how long this is going to last.
Was it a coincidence that I was browsing through thousands of photos I’ve uploaded to Amazon and Google, and there was an old B&W snapshot of my dad and my maternal grandfather clearing the area behind my parents house for a late 1941 or early 1942 “Victory garden,” a response to the disruptions introduced by the beginning of WWII.
Meanwhile, we’ve cancelled two planned trips that we had planned over the next couple of months, and are waiting to make a decision on #3. Of the small groups of friends we see on our early morning walks, three have already cancelled or are in the process of cancelling trips they had planned to take between now and the end of April. Two friends in California have each cancelled multiple trips, foreign and domestic.
There’s going to be plenty of pain to go around, it seems.
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for Fox viewers, coronavirus isn’t a big deal because we already have the flu and car accidents.
that is, until they catch the coronavirus.
”So we’ll hunker down and hope for the best….”. Think for those folk who weren’t in the stock-up-on-toilet-paper crowd, your quote resonates. (I think The Donald is wringing his hands…. recessions don’t favor the sitting head.)
“This time feels different.” Social media and instantaneous news are having a big impact on this, and I wonder how much of it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy on the economic side of things.
The world standard for how to get the corona virus under control are Singapore and South Korea where they have aggressively tested, quarantined, tracked infections and fatalities, and promoted social distancing strategies.
We are far from meeting that standard, especially because of the failure to provide reliable and adequate supplies of testing kits. The number of current infections in the US by the official count today is 1,600, but many experts believe that count is way too low because of the lack of testing, and that a more realistic estimate would be in the neighborhood of 10,000 infections.
Failure to identify who is infected, to track as many infections as quickly as possible, to quarantine and treat all people with the virus, and to support social distancing strategies like sick leave payments and food and rent support can result in exponential growth in the sick and the overwhelming of the ability of the hospitals to provide the ICU and special support that 30% of the victims will require to have a chance of surviving the illness.
Italy is reporting that they do not have sufficient ICU beds to meet the onslaught of patients now needing that intensive care, and that, as a result, they are having to do triage, essentially deciding who will die for lack of intensive care.
The United States is much less prepared than Italy to provide such ICU facilities and equipment because of our past failure to invest in facilities needed to withstand pandemics.
Look for the charts showing the progress of infection statistics by country to get an idea of the difference to having the disease under control (Singapore, South Korea) and out of control (Italy, Iran). It is very likely that our patterns will look like Italy’s because we are way behind the curve in reacting to the level of infection. See the chart in https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps-italy-iran-korea.html showing the explosive growth in Italy from a handful of new cases each day in mid-February to over 1500/day on March 9.
If we start running out of ICU beds and equipment, the economic consequences are not going to be the result of self fulfilling panics; they will be the result of well founded fears and rational reactions of a community suddenly dealing with massive numbers of infected people within a very short period and without adequate support for the measures needed to get the pandemic under control or to help the most needy and vulnerable to get the medical help and economic support they need.
My Uncle during WW2 was in old photo club. My Uncle had a great eye for Asian girls in posing in bikinis tending Oahu Victory Gardens as an 18 year old in Kalihi Fire Warden.
All the Boomers heard 40/50 years of Comedic songs, war gears at parents funeral many noted WW2 memories mandatory carrying full face mask respirator, muddy trenches to navigate to school and work, mandatory nightly blackouts, and scarce supplies!
They only had fresh meat if a submariner family member wanted biscuits and gravy! No candy was available. Many things were not available that’s why they saved everything for emergencies!
Under 50 many may die of extreme anxiety, over 50 we know how to keep busy. Internet goes own, could double under 50 death stress for folks. Let’s say HECO worlds oldest power station blew fuse at Pearl, built before WW2 in a combined panic it’s the Dan Ackroyd, John Belushi Classic movie “1942”!
Ten times more deadly than the flu, and twice as contagious.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/12/21172040/coronavirus-covid-19-virus-charts