A University of Washington health data institute now predicts Hawaii’s coronavirus peak demand on health resources will come next Sunday, April 12. That’s three days earlier than the predicted peak for the country as a whole.
According to the group’s latest forecast (released April 7), which is based on constantly updated data on the spread of the disease and policy responses, there will be 17 deaths in Hawaii on April 12th due to Covid-19, with a total of 155 predicted deaths by the end of the month.
Although Hawaii is predicted to have enough total hospital beds, we have only 40 percent of the 111 intensive care beds we are expected to need. The number of deaths per day is expected to stay high for several days, and then begin to drop the middle of next week.
The forecast is the latest from The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent population health research center at UW Medicine, part of the University of Washington, that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME makes this information freely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions about how to allocate resources to best improve population health.
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Pure nonsense. 17 deaths on a particular date? 155 by the end of the month when we have 5 now over the last 4 weeks?? Not gonna happen. Not going to run out of beds. Not going to run out of anything we need to survive….,except toilet paper of course. Let it be written…….
They claim that daily admissions in Hawaii will peak on April 18th, and that deaths in Hawaii will peak on the 26th.
They do offer the caveat that places like Hawaii that have had few cases do not map well. They also note that some states seem to have few cases because they simply are not testing that much.
https://time.com/5815136/how-long-to-flatten-curve-us-states
This might not mean that Hawaii is in the clear. The peak might turn out to be months away.
It seems very uncertain what will happen. A few days ago, there was a scientific report stating that the virus is less dangerous and contagious than feared. Yesterday, another credible medical report stated that the virus is far worse than expected.
Not only does nobody really know about the virus with certainty, even if they did, its spread would still be unpredictable. In any epidemic, one town will suffer horribly while the town next door will be untouched. There is an element of randomness.
What nobody in Hawaii is talking about is that tourism is toast. On the one hand, it might take years to recover, and not even to what it once was. On the other hand, tourism might never recover, at all.
A resort in New York state closed in the face of the coronavirus crisis and reduced staff from 500 to 17. In order to fund those few jobs and serve the local community, it turned itself into a non-profit food delivery service.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/opinion/coronavirus-business-new-york.html
Are there backup plans in Hawaii for re-purposing tourist-related resources in the inevitable event that tourism collapses during a prolonged emergency? Are there any plans for re-purposing these resources in the unlikely but nevertheless possible case that tourism permanently disappears?
Zero deaths today, Sunday April 12, 2020. Somebody needs to fire these ‘experts’.