Rail has become our transportation quagmire. Remember that word? It was the term applied to the U.S. war in Vietnam, and to the seemingly endless war in Afghanistan. It’s the idea that a series of decisions can end up trapping us in a costly situation from which there appears to be no exit.
In politics, a quagmire refers to a dangerous and usually complex situation which is difficult to get out of. In literal terms, a quagmire is a soft, marshy area of land that gives way underfoot. Making your way through a quagmire is comparable to walking across quicksand.
In the United States, historians often talk about the Vietnam war as a “quagmire.” Quagmire theory holds that the US government got involved in Vietnam little by little, one step at a time. Eventually, the country was mired in the conflict and couldn’t get out….
It’s been used to describe the US presence in Afghanistan, as well as the ongoing involvement in Iraq. President Obama, who won his first term on a promise to get US troops out of Iraq, found that he was mired in the conflict. His critics claimed that Obama was carrying out the very type of small-bore, blinkered policies in Iraq which would lead the US deeper into a quagmire. Republican senator John McCain, who spent seven years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam, denounced Obama’s Iraq policy of “half measures,” saying, “this is incrementalism at its best — or worst.” [Source: https://politicaldictionary.com/words/quagmire/]
Now we have what seems to be rail without end.
Lori Kahikina, interim CEO of the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation, now says that we’re $3 billion and a decade short of finishing the long-delayed rail system, according to an article in the Honolulu Advertiser this morning.
“What we’re looking at is a $3 billion shortfall,” Kahikina said.
That would be 27% of the current projected budget of $11 billion. And it’s not clear from the Star-Advertiser story whether we’re talking about $3 billion that’s already in the budget but lacks funding, or an additional $3 billion, bringing the total to somewhere around $14 billion.
Further, Kahikina is quoted as saying: “At the risk of being shot by the public and other stakeholders, we are actually estimating maybe 2031 that everything is complete.”
Let’s put that 2031 timeframe in perspective. Those born on November 4, 2008–the day when Honolulu voters approved proceeding with the rail project by a narrow margin–will be old enough to have gradated from college and be starting families of their own by the time the rail project will be completed.
And that’s only if it is “on time and on budget” from here on, something I’m sure most people will agree is highly unlikely. Past performance is, after all, the best predictor of future performance.
Pretty much the definition of a quagmire, I think.
Rail without end. Amen.
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“And it’s not clear from the Star-Advertiser story whether we’re talking about $3 billion that’s already in the budget but lacks funding, or an additional $3 billion, bringing the total to somewhere around $14 billion.”
The approved recovery plan included funding of approximately $9.2 billion. Last year GET and TAT were projected to have a shortfall due to COVID of about $450 million. If the current shortfall is $3 billion, that would mean we can expect the cost side to increase.
The Finance Committee of HART meets today. I encourage those interested to watch live on Olelo 53.
Will anyone be held accountable.
I don’t think Mufi has won an election since 2008. Perhaps that is, at least in part, the electorate holding him accountable for rail.
We’ll probably see next year if the electorate holds Caldwell accountable for his contributions to the rail debacle.
Billions in boondoggle $$$ with people coming to the realization during the pandemic that maybe they don’t want to be squeezed into recirculating air compartments at very close proximity to strangers, many of whom will be of very questionable hygiene habits. Add to that the choo choo plodding along its 20 mile route (if that happens) with stops every minute makes for an unpleasant experience if you really choose to commute that way. I suspect most that can will STAY in their cars regardless of traffic.
Labor union bosses (note: bosses…not necessarily the rank and file), contractors and politicians are fat & happy, which was the goal all along.
Especially John White, who helped torpedo Ben Cayetano.
Rail was Obama’s “Shovel Ready” project!
When I arrived at Damien to teach (August, 1968), I brought my Jeep, a CJ-5 which I
had christened ‘Quagmire,. any young man who went to school there (1968-74) would
know Quagmire.
I picked the word up from Shakespeare in a play ” ” . . . o’er bog and quagmire . . . .
The costs keep escalating. How many execs have come and gone–five, six? Nowhere close to finishing. No stations complete, no plan for parking. Looks like a hike in tax is next, for what benefit? Traffic will not improve according to HART studies, and estimated cost of operation the last time I read was $120 million per year, without any financial plan in place on how to fund it. As usual for many large capital projects, its a lost cause (see, Aloha Stadium, Blaisdell center upgrade, UH and DOE projects–did I miss anything?). Turn it into a monument to greed and government stupidity, or use it for elevated walking and bicycling.
“The Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation had previously confirmed the operating budget was estimated to be $120 million, 30 percent of which would be covered by fares. This means the city would have to subsidize $90 million for the rail’s operation.
“Based on broad calculation, if you need to raise $90 million it will be an overall increase of 9 percent in property taxes,” Kurokawa said.
Kurokawa said the money would be divided and affect “all tax brackets.” bizjournals 1/13/16
Gary Kurokawa was deputy director of the City and County of Honolulu’s department of budget and fiscal services at that time.
IAN, I’m over the blame games. Like the War in Vietnam, rail needs an exit strategy.
“Vietnamization” = “Railization”?
Wish I had answers.
Kudos to the new interim CEO of the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation, Lori Kahikina, for at least being candid about the problem.
Unlike Vietnam we can not just leave and end this quagmire. Endless laments by armchair engineers will not get it done. And, we have no real choice but to finish.
Without the entire 20 mile route it can never be successful. If finished it will be a real asset. Abandoning the train short of Ala Moana will create a 10 mile White Elephant we will still have to pay for.
Please help me understand what is “successful” in this case? Thanks.
It amazes me that the new CEO seems to have some hand picked pals that she brought with her to HART. She has no idea how she will build the last section. She lays off long time employees with the institutional knowledge needed to build the rest of the system.
I think that when somethings not working, you stop doing it. That would be common sense! Certainly common sense is lacking in Hawaii!
Ian, as far as I can remember, this news is worse than the most dire predictions of the rail project opponents.
@Keith Ward:
Someone (graduate student, serious journalist?) should do a “literature review” of all those dire predictions you mention and see how close the anti-rail naysayers came to the present situation. I do find it interesting that all the many loud-mouth if not obnoxious rail supporters seem to be strangely silent.
Finally, I am really interested to hear from economists if rail has stimulated the local economy the way it was promised–construction jobs galore.
Next week’s HART meeting will include discussion of the $12.4 billion estimated total cost and $3.6 billion projected shortfall. The financial is available at: http://hartdocs.honolulu.gov/docushare/dsweb/Get/Document-25002/20210318-financial-update-presentation-2021-march.pdf.
Oops. That should say “financial update,” and here’s the agenda with instructions on how to provide testimony or watch the meeting — http://hartdocs.honolulu.gov/docushare/dsweb/Get/Document-24951/NoContent7129283305033096025.txt.
I’m with Bob Jones-stop it at Chinatown!
For its strongest supporters, the whole point of the rail project was that it would be endless. The rail workers would be permanently employed building rail all over Oahu, and they said as much. That does not mean that they thought it was a scam.