The San Francisco Chronicle has a feature story today trying to decipher why young adults are leaving the city (“Why 20-somethings are abandoning San Francisco — even when they can afford it“). There may be a pay wall, but I’m not sure.
Overall, from 2013 to 2023, the share of 20-somethings in San Francisco County dropped from about 18% of the population to about 14% — the largest such decline of any major U.S. county and nearly quadruple the national drop. The data prompts a big question relating to the city’s economic future: Is this the mere ebbs and flows of San Francisco’s demographics at play, or the start of something much grimmer?
Here’s the relevance to us here in Honolulu. The article includes a table showing the decline in the 20-something population across 11 cities, with San Francisco at the top of the list with the greatest decline.
But second on the list, only slightly below SF, is Honolulu.
It appears we have a similar problem.
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Any idea where they are going? I remember Bill Chee of what was Prudential Locations saying something to the effect regarding their research of Oahu neighborhood sales, that he wished they had researched the buyers and where they were coming from and where the sellers were going.
The real issue is not only that 20-somethings are leaving Hawaii, but also the type of 20-somethings who are leaving. When I worked at the Dept. of Labor, I conducted a listening tour around the state regarding federally funded youth programs. On one island, an operator of one of the programs told me that while there is a youth brain drain on that island, it involves those who have the option to leave. This meant that their families had money, or they had more diverse options available to them than some others. It indicated that for those who had the option, they could leave, and they very much did. However, for those who didn’t have that option (and as you know, we live in a class society, so you can guess who that is), their situation depended on whatever the island could provide. On the surface, this issue seems quite disturbing (but really, this has been happening since the time of the Baby Boomers, with Generation X being the one that alerted Hawaii to the issue during their exodus in the early to mid-90s), yet it is more nuanced than that.
Ian, have you looked at how this jibes with the recent report that out. migration is now less than in migration? It’s being used to suggest that young people are coming back.
Hawaii will be losing this 60-something in a few years as well. I am lucky it worked out that I ended up here 30 years ago and made my life work without a lot of planning, but no matter how I crunch the numbers I can’t see a way to make a comfortable retirement. I didn’t inherit property, which is the only way some folks can stay.
My 27yo son was born here and he survives by continuing to live like a college kid with a lot of roommates and friends, but he doesn’t want to have children because he can’t see a way to support a family. So we are also losing the youngins who will never be born.
I have my opinions about why this is, but so far no one has asked me to run the world.
It’s in the nature of people in their 20s to up and run away from home. Some will come back; others will be replaced by runaways from elsewhere.
One of my friends has an only child. He has the motivation, means, and clout to provide a way for his kid to stay in Hawaii, especially because there are grandbabies. When I asked why he didn’t, my friend said we have to let our kids go to make their way, no matter how much we want them to stay. His kid has a major job on the mainland with a multinational company for which there is no local equivalent. So my friend makes do with several trips a year, and looks forward to the day when the grandbabies are old enough to come and stay for summers in Hawaii. My friend’s wealth makes this all possible, so although bittersweet, at least he has the means to hold his family together. Not so for many of our fellow islanders. Another friend who lives paycheck to paycheck must make do with seeing her only child every couple of years because that’s all she can afford. She pinches pennies and diligently saves for every precious trip.
I think it is in the best interests of the powers that be to keep our school system sub-par, albeit, there are some exceptional public schools in Hawaii with exceptional educators and personnel. Heaven forbid, those running for office have to run against someone highly educated. I am from the public school system, btw.
The brain drain benefits those in power. They have less competition.