Category Archives: Business

Bio-engineered “meat” and the end of the livestock industry

That’s the thesis the independent research group, RethinkX in a new report, “Rethinking Food and Agriculture 2020-2030.”

Subtitled: “The Second Domestication of Plants and Animals, the Disruption of the Cow, and the Collapse of Industrial Livestock Farming.”

I was introduced to this thought provoking report by an item that floated past on Facebook, an article about the report from BigThink.com.

From their summary:

From 2012 to 2023, the costs of protein in the U.S. from cows vs. precision-biology food technology will reach parity, says independent think tank RethinkX. It will be a tipping point after which acceptance of modern foods will accelerate quickly, leaving the cattle industry effectively bankrupt by 2030 and five years later down to 10 percent of its current size.

This “protein disruption” will be followed by the collapse of a wide range of related and supporting industries by 2035, it will be, according to the researchers, “the deepest, fastest, most consequential disruption in food and agricultural production since the first domestication of plants and animals ten thousand years ago.”

RethinkX’s startling predictions are published in a report released September 16 titled “Rethinking Food and Agriculture 2020-2030 — The Second Domestication of Plants and Animals, the Disruption of the Cow, and the Collapse of Industrial Livestock Farming.” The ramifications, the group says, will be profound, far-reaching, and overwhelmingly positive, affecting people everywhere. In sum, things are about to change. Big time.

The meat of the report, so to speak, is in sections that project the impact of new food technologies on the agriculture and livestock industries, associated economic sectors (transportation, etc), land use and values, and broader environmental, social, and economic impacts.

It’s a lot to digest, especially since at present there are only a couple of companies producing commercial quantities of engineered “meat.”

Together with the issue of a world heated by climate change, this is definitely pushing us to think outside of our typical limited range.

Seeking answers about abrupt lease cancellation of Barbers Point aviation museum

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Here’s a recommendation to start your week. Check out Stan Fichtman’s two-part assessment of the state Department of Transportation’s treatment of the Naval Air Museum Barbers Point. These are the latest posts on his website, PoliticsHawaii.com.

Stan writes at length after interviewing Brad Hayes, the director of the nonprofit Hawaii Museum of Flying, which has operated the museum since its inception two decades ago, as well as attempting to get the DOT to answer questions about the controversy.

It sounds like a simple story.

After rescuing aircraft that had been left behind at the Barbers Point Airfield (now officially the Kalaeloa Airport) when the Navy moved out, this group of history buffs slowly built their aviation museum over two decades.They had been working with the state to relocate the museum from its current location, but then the state went silent for about seven years. Then, in mid-September, the DOT abruptly sent a letter cancelling the museum’s current month-to-month lease and order them to vacate the property. See “Naval Air Museum Is Being Evicted over Contract Issues,” Military.com.

Local media report that DOT cited several outstanding issues that led to the cancellation, including insurance problems and unauthorized storage.

Fichtman expresses his frustration with DOT’s failure to communicate towards the end of Part 2 of the story.

A DEFINITION OF THE WORD “Monolith” goes like this: “a large and impersonal political, corporate, or social structure regarded as intractably indivisible and uniform.”

The logo of the State of Hawaii Dept. of Transportation. Could be used as the image to describe “monolith”

As I was going through the interviews and hearing from the different parties in this part of the tale, that word kept on coming up, and growing, as a theme of what the museum was really dealing with. It soon became apparent what Brad and the museum, along with the neighborhood board is dealing with, is tantamount to a quote from the movie “Matilda”, from the book by Roald Dahl.

“I’m right and you’re wrong, I’m big and you’re small, and there’s nothing you can do about it.”

In other words, the Department of Transportation, Airports Division, is the big person, and everyone else is the little people. And just because they are big and can wield power, their judgement is absolute and unquestionable, on the little people.

It’s not a pretty picture if your standards for government include openness and accountability.

In any case, Stan’s trying to build awareness of and interest in his website. I recommend giving these two stories a read.

Do investments in farm lands make things better or worse for farmers?

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Here’s a juxtaposition I find deeply disturbing.

On the one hand, there have been a spate of recent news stories about the dismal circumstances of farmers in the United States.

Here’s one which appeared in Time this week: “‘They’re Trying to Wipe Us Off the Map.’ Small American Farmers Are Nearing Extinction.”

The article starts with the story of a Wisconsin family.

The Rieckmanns are about $300,000 in debt, and bill collectors are hounding them about the feed bill and a repayment for a used tractor they bought to keep the farm going. But it’s harder than ever to make any money, much less pay the debt, Mary Rieckmann says, in the yellow-wallpapered kitchen of the sagging farmhouse where she lives with her husband, John, and two of their seven children. The Rieckmanns receive about $16 for every 100 pounds of milk they sell, a 40 percent decrease from six years back. There are weeks where the entire milk check goes towards the $2,100 monthly mortgage payment. Two bill collectors have taken out liens against the farm. “What do you do when you you’re up against the wall and you just don’t know which way to turn?”

The macro view is just as harsh.

Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies were up 12 percent in the Midwest from July of 2018 to June of 2019; they’re up 50 percent in the Northwest. Tens of thousands have simply stopped farming, knowing that reorganization through bankruptcy won’t save them. The nation lost more than 100,000 farms between 2011 and 2018; 12,000 of those between 2017 and 2018 alone.

On the other hand, several similar investment funds are being pitched directly to consumers offering an opportunity to put money into farm land, with promises of enticing financial returns.

For example, take FarmTogther.com:

Invest in US Farmland

Preserve & Grow Your Assets

Build a Recession-Resistant Portfolio

Here’s the pitch.

Farmland has proven to be one of the most stable asset classes over the past few decades, and one of the highest yielding asset classes on a risk-return basis. Farmland is uncorrelated with virtually every other mainstream asset class, and it has proven to perform well during economic recessions.

We believe farmland is a bond-like equity investment product that offers investors upside potential while also mitigating downside risks, and we believe it is suitable for almost any portfolio.

Farm lands–notice they’re not talking about farms–are just another commodity. I doubt very much that farm lands are “one of the highest yielding asset classes” offering such “upside potential” unless you look past farming to “highest and best use,” more sprawling suburbs or gentleman farms of the future.

Now, if these investment groups were talking about funding low interest loans or other financial support for struggling farmers, that would be a different story. That investment would provide social benefits.

Investors to demand disclosure of climate change risks

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Cities and states float municipal bonds to get the money to finance their operations and fund capital improvements, but that’s going to get a bit trickier for jurisdictions on the edge of climate change impacts.

According to these reports, investors and bond rating agencies are starting to insist that local and state governments start disclosing details of their preparations for climate change so that investment risks can be identified and considered.

Moody’s Investors Service, a bond rating agency, recently became the majority owner of a climate change research company, and the agency now intends to use the research to determine how much different bond issuers are doing to address the impacts of the changing climate. And those findings will start to be considered in Moody’s ratings. See “Moody’s to Weigh City Efforts to Cope with Climate Change in Bond Ratings.”

Similarly, Governing.com reported: “Climate Change Could Make Borrowing Costlier for States and Cities.”

as ratings firms begin to focus on climate change, and investors increasingly talk about the issue, those involved in the market say now is the time for communities to make serious investments in climate resilience — or risk being punished by the financial sector in the future.

“We look not just at the vulnerability of state and local governments, but their ability to manage the impact,” said Emily Raimes, vice president with Moody’s Public Finance Group. “While we’ll be looking at the data on rising sea levels and who may be more vulnerable, we’ll also be looking at what these governments are doing to mitigate the impact.”

i L i n d

Ian Lind • Now online daily from Old Kahala

Category Archives: Business

Bio-engineered “meat” and the end of the livestock industry

Seeking answers about abrupt lease cancellation of Barbers Point aviation museum

Do investments in farm lands make things better or worse for farmers?

Investors to demand disclosure of climate change risks