Kaaawa is firmly in the 2nd Congressional District, so I can only vicariously feel the pain of progressive Democrats trying to decide how to cast their special election ballots.
My feeling is that Colleen Hanabusa has the best record and the best chance for success in Congress, but…and a big but…I’ve also been watching for months, expecting to see some evidence that her campaign has increased its traction among voters. She’s doing fine among Dem leaders, but for whatever reasons, her campaign has just lacked any spark, and her poll results have sagged when they needed to surge.
The Case campaign sent out an email blast yesterday citing the most recent poll results.
Hanabusa’s camp responded by again describing her as the best candidate. I agree that she is. But despite the positive tone from Hanabusa’s campaign (the votes cast are the only poll that counts, etc), I haven’t seen any evidence that the recent polls are masking a dramatic turnaround in voter opinion.
So despite the fact that I haven’t been an Ed Case booster, if I lived in the district he would be getting my vote. I wouldn’t have said that earlier in this campaign. But I’m not one of those Democrats who would rather see the Republican candidate win than a Democratic candidate they don’t like (and don’t control). And I don’t think it would make a lot of political sense, under the circumstances, to save my vote for my preferred candidate while knowing that she won’t win.
If you’re a Democrat in the 1st District, what’s your position at this point?
Discover more from i L i n d
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
i voted for case. he’s the best candidate. i have never consciously let a newspaper poll influence who i’m voting for.
It is absolutely WRONG for the Advertiser or other periodicals to be publishing polls so close to the election period. Why? Because people react exactly as you are reacting. This isn’t reporting news. This is creating news. People are altering their votes because of a survey taken by the Advertiser. And the Advertiser is NOT giving you sufficient details to examine the accuracy of the poll. For example: What secific question was asked? What was the sample made up of? Where did the phone numbers come from (registered voters haven’t had to provide their phone numbers since the 90’s; how much systematic bias is there in the sample used — also did they use cell phone sampling — how did they then screen for registered voters, etc. etc., etc)? Was there any weighting done before reporting the data (must have been given the disproportionate sampling)? Any of these questions would be answered in private polling. Yet the Advertiser presents a public poll without being forthright with any of it, making it almost impossible to judge the credibility of these results. And they get away with it because the average reader assumes the newspaper is an unbiased purveyor of the news. YET you, Ian, a very responsible researcher, is willing to change a very important decision, critical to the democratic process, without examining the survey procedures. Ward is a reputable research company — but the Advertiser is notorious for altering question wording and for unsuual weighting . . . . and by the way, for being dramatically wrong as often as they are right on their polling. This is wrong and I am disappointed — no matter how pragmatic — that you would make this decision; and that you would publish and try to sway people to that decision.
http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/20100505/BREAKING01/100505033/Hanabusa+to+hold+noon+news+conference+amid+presssure+to+drop+out
Advertiser Staff
State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa has scheduled a news conference for noon today amid pressure from some Democrats that she drop out of the race for U.S. Congress.
Hanabusa is a candidate in the special election in urban Honolulu’s 1st Congressional District.
Recent polls suggest that Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou, a Republican, could win the election in President Obama’s hometown district.
Hanabusa and former Congressman Ed Case are seen splitting the Democrat vote.
Case has been leading Hanabusa but trailing Djou in recent polls.
National Democrats have considered backing Case over Hanabusa and, behind-the-scenes, have urged Hanabusa’s supporters to convince her to step aside.
The national dem congressional committee should just stay out of this election and let this play out locally. Sure, ads targeting the republican candidate are okay, but pressuring one democratic candidate to concede to another or favoring one over another when neither is an incumbent and we’re really only looking at a 7-month period just annoys me. A lot.
Aloha, Congressman Djou!!!
Honolulu Advertiser:
State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa said today that she would not drop out of the special election for Congress.
“I’m in this race until the end, and I’m in this race to win,” Hanabusa said at a news conference at her campaign headquarters off Ward Avenue.
Advertiser just got played.