Wow!
I did not expect Mufi Hannemann to get smoked like this!
I would certainly like to understand how the Hannemann campaign crashed so badly. He had the high visibility from his two terms as mayor and earlier years on the City Council, he had the big money, and he had most of the big endorsements. And he still got soundly trounced. Even if he had gotten all of the Republican votes cast statewide, he still would have lost.
So what happened?
Turnout. Only 41.8% of registered voters actually cast primary ballots. So nearly six out of ten voters stayed away. It would appear that many of those were probably Mufi’s voters. Unfortunately, without precinct data to see if turnout was low in areas where Mufi has drawn his votes in the past, it’s difficult to draw any conclusions.
Momentum. I don’t know how you can quantify the shift towards Abercrombie in the final days of the campaign. The late flow of money was one indicator.
Rail. I would guess that the way Mufi pushed rail cost him votes, although the Panos for mayor campaign, which was the closest to a single-issue anti-rail test, pulled less than 20% of the Honolulu mayoral vote. So it’s doubtful that rail was the primary factor.
“Familiarity breeds contempt.” Honolulu residents probably know a lot more about Mufi than they do about Neil. In this case, it didn’t turn into a plus for the former mayor.
“Negative” turnoff. Hannemann’s campaign seemed to lose its way after the negative public reaction to the “compare and decide” mailer, and the awkward apologize-but-keep-distributing response. I wonder whether the campaign had other attack ads planned that were scrapped in the wake of “compare and decide”.
What happened to the “shock and awe” that the Hannemann campaign promised? There was anticipation, then nothing. What did that mean?
All comments appreciated.
And data is in scarce supply. Trying to access primary statistics at the Office of Elections web site this morning returns this message:
So it goes.
Oh, and did I mention being pleased that Gary Okino is being sent into retirement after his God-based challenge to Blake Oshiro failed?
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Mufi’s concession speech said it all; it was all about Mufi. Neil’s victory speech showed why he won; he’s passionate about ideas, endearing in his enthusiasms. He doesn’t harp on himself.
Did I not hear correctly? I could have sworn that Neil said he was quoting Mufi in his victory speech when he talked about “not about us”?
The polls showed Mufi trailing but I don’t believe any showed a blowout.
As Norm said, a lot of people didn’t look like Mufi and didn’t realize it was an issue until he brought it up so he lost them; many women didn’t like him, and I suppose his comparison shopping on wives didn’t help with them; he was pro-business and that left the union rank and file wondering how they would do under Mufi; and did the Democratic establishment (Leg, unions, business) belatedly consider Mufi’s confrontational style, so that they didn’t go the distance with funding and people? Finally in the last days, he went from “tough manager Mufi” to “nice Mufi” with ads full of little kids (none of whom looked like Mufi) so he may have hurt his core image. At the end he was pandering to every group he could find.
A lot of people complained that Abercrombie’s message was initially about Mufi, not about Neil, but it seems to have worked.
Nice to see negative campaigning failing. Must be the sunshine here.
Actually, one poll did predict a blowout.
http://www.civilbeat.com/posts/2010/09/19/4692-civil-beat-poll-had-it-right-again/
I wish to state that if I could spend “time” with my deceased parents, it would not , I repeat, Not be about me…
Ian,
This isn’t a shocker, it’s a sea change. The equivalent of ‘Global Warming’ has hit Hawaii Politics. The results, in the context of the last 60 years of politics in Hawaii are unimaginable.
As you may recall, I predicted a ‘sure’ Mufi victory based on 1) The establishment endorsements, in particular, the HGEA and the Star-Advertiser 2) Superior funding. Ten years ago, that combination, plus the general support from the contractor/establishment set and the election was ‘done’. What happened?
Turn out. The once reliable working-class local vote that elected Burns, Ariyoshi, Waihee, and Cayetano is no longer, well, reliable. My guess is the registration dropped in that segment. Why? Because unions can not protect jobs. And frankly, politicians really can’t do much about it either.
There is a reason why turnout is dropping, particularly for ‘establishment’ supporters. Despite the rhetoric, jobs are being furloughed, cut, and out-sourced. In short, the once solid relationship between, for example, public employee unions, union leadership, and selected politicians has become dysfunctional. HGEA, UPW, and other unions can’t deliver. The emperors have no clothes.
The Democratic Party, as we knew it, exists as an illusion. It has no real power, and is, at best, a vessel to get elected. For all the Democrats running on the change platform, start with their own party. Reform starts from within. Failure to do so will result in even more Democrats realizing the irrelevance of their party.
The Republicans are not offering a viable alternative. Basically, they have become the fundamentalist reactionary party and the home of Obama haters. They have no real ideology, other than to do the work of Jesus as they narrowly define it. Muslims, Jews and other non-Christians need not apply.
In the end, the circus has come to town and people are too busy watching “American Idol” to care. Frankly, votes on reality shows are more satisfying than political contests; check the numbers/ratings.
Most of the Star-Advertiser’s endorsements lost. Toxic? But Mufi’s biggest liability is Mufi himself.
The answer to the Gov. race and voting in the primary can be found in the numbers applied to an understanding and analysis of the Democratic Party. The monolithic portrayal of the Dem “machine” has always done a disservice to the electorate in an attempt by the establishment papers to create a “horse race” out of the mostly non-viable local GOP.
The Dems can really be divided in two main groups: 1) the establishment camp that devolved from ’54 through the Dem. govt. employment agency and into the development supporting/Fed money channeling machine that dominated through this decade, and 2) the progressive/independent wing that had always existed within the party but more recently solidified with the Obama grassroots effort led by Schatz.
Neil had come from that second group in the original progressive wave and carved out a moderate niche since then. Remember the Richard Port group’s brief ascension to Dem party leadership in the 90’s when the old guard was running out of steam? Add up the prog/indi votes in the Lt. race for Schatz/Hooser/Berg and you get about 53%. Add up the establishment Dem votes for Bunda (insurance) and Sakamoto (construction) and you get 37%.
Now factor two things, the fact that Neil at the top energized the Prog/indi “half” of the active Dems and consider the rise of social networking and the collapse of print media. In primaries, only the hardcores come out and vote. Schatz’s new-media Obama efforts and Abercrombie’s embrace of the new communication methods show clear arrows of explanation why they both emerged so strongly; Neil over the establishment Mufi and Schatz over the establishment Bunda and Sakamoto and distinguished from the progressives Hooser and Berg. Getting it?
Anyway, The establishment Dem. “machine” is still lead by Inouye and the system of channeling Fed $ through gate keepers to keep the right people employed. While almost nobody minds the “Luau King” bringing bucks to Hawaii, the lack of innovation and entrenched control are increasingly resented and seen as a certain type of failure. Everybody who isn’t in the camp has had to suck it or has watched their kids have to leave the State to eek out a living.
So forget the Repubs, they are just the malleable ideologues who believe the shallow press that they should be some sort of alternative to the Dems in Hawaii. They are undermined by the false social issues of civil rights and women’s reproductive choice which they court to suck up to the Catholic/Mormon/New Hope establishment that the GOP slums for in order to convert actual voters to support politicians who whore for big corporate $ and agendas. And the polarization between the obvious corporate party and the less obvious corporate party goes on.
But in Hawaii, we have a viable and now more influential progressive and independent body (former wing) of the Dem Party, which will stand on issues, speak truth to power and brings in something less corrupt then the Dan/Mufi/Caldwell chain offered. For awhile…
Previously, where the progressive Dems stayed out of elections is where cracks for Dem in name only and independent Repubs occured. Lingle’s first term, Carlisle’s current victory, etc. Prog. Dems, liked none of the current Mayoral candidates, likely abstained, and Carlisle takes it. So who shows up on the Dem side is really the story.
Play with the numbers some more from this election and the previous and it will be clearer. Look at the legislature to see how viable the religious party really is. (The non-profit” church/land corporations should have their status revoked for political activity that crosses the line.) The Hawaii GOP doesn’t really exist. In the General the media will only distract us with the phony Repub vs. Dem horse race thing and miss the issues and real dynamic. Social media, however, will do much better.
That’s a hopeful analysis.
as a ‘Prog Dem”,many votes this year were against candidates. I voted Panos by process of elimination, i.e. ain’t no way I’m voting for any of the others. Plus rail needs to be re-thought. 19th century technology and steel-on-steel in a salt air environment is asking for trouble. We got enough already
Many I know voted for Carlisle because Panos did not have big money like Carlisle and Caldwell.
They are against the rail but they are more against Mufi’s crony Caldwell.
Shocking, shocking, shocking…o, really!
i enjoy being pandered to. i like being showered with attention and made to feel average or sub par because i attended the UH Manoa. i love hearing the Lord’s name invoked at every twist and turn of meandering speeches ad nauseum (is Hawaii a part of the Bible Belt? must have happened when i wasn’t lookin’).
It is a beautiful day today.
What a heartening victory by Neil folks! So unexpected as I discovered when I tuned in around 10ish last night.
So voters picked the candidate with character, integrity and a positive vision for Hawaii, despite myriad endorsements for Mufi.
When it really matters, how a politician walks is much more important than how he or she talks. Any worker in State or City government knows how politicians really walk no matter what they say!
I am very proud to be an American and resident of the Aloha State.
I was sorry to see we’ve lost a chance to field Del Castillo for CD1. I’d also hoped that Gary Hooser would be our lg, Kirk Caldwell would be our Mayor, and that Sol Kaho’ohalahala would be Maui’s mayor.
But the overwhelming blowout for Neil was the great news of the night, for sure.
How did that happen? Neil inspired us to volunteer for him till our shoes wore out, to canvas, wave sign, phone bank, hold neighborhood events, and share news. The key word is ‘inspired’.
The man is genuinely here for the people, is sincere, and people feel that.
It’s a beautiful thing. I am sure we are going to have a fantastic community conversation going forward. Imua!
Gary was probably the most progressive of the bunch. What he lacked was money. Schatz and Sakamoto pretty much sucked up most of the money. Schatz got his moneys worth and ran a excellent campaign. Sakamoto just could not connect with the voters. The guy I took a liking to was Karamatsu, he really spoke from the heart. I hope this is not the last we see from Gary or Jon.
Mahalo for your comments, folks. Now on to the next level of political work.
In the meantime, if you are a TreeHugger type who would like to have some influence on what’s going to come out of the Legislature, the county councils, and Congress, please join us at the Charter Meeting of the “Green Caucus” of the Democratic Party of Hawai`i. We’ll be meeting this Tuesday, September 21, from 6 pm to 8 pm in the Kaka`ako Room next to Party headquarters on the second floor of Ward Warehouse.
Just a word of caution, however. If you want to take part in any of the decision-making – what the bylaws will look like, Caucus leadership, or particular energy & environmental issues, you must be a member of the Democratic Party. We’ll have membership forms available at the registration desk.
The first item on my Green Agenda is to make sure that the right people are named as heads of the Department of Land & Natural Resources, Department of Transportation, Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, and Department of Agriculture.
That means making sure that Neil and Brian win resoundingly this November. The Senate will still remain under Democratic control, but we need to make sure that good people are not only nominated but confirmed.
Are onlyDemocrats allowed to be a tree-hugger?
There are lots of independents and Republicans
tree-huggers?
Not sure if this is a bad joke or serious.
How is it a bad thing if environmentally-minded Democrats want to form a caucus within the party to strengthen the voice of environmentalists within the party?
I would encourage Republicans to form their own environmental caucus within their Party. There WAS a local effort in the GOP, headed by Mindy Jaffe. Back in the days when Lingle was still a moderate. It withered on the vine and died off, largely because the real enviros within the organization saw the GOP was more interested in using them as window-dressing, but dedicated to opposing all meaningful environmental protections from the law.
In this way, they were very much like the Log Cabin Republicans. Obviously, there are a LOT of gays within the GOP, including in high positions. But how can a gay, in good conscience, actively help build an organization which has relied upon stoking the flames of anti-gay prejudice as a fundamental component of its electoral strategy?
Locally, there are still some environmentalists, or more properly, “conservationists,” who are Republicans. But, in general, these folks are alarmed by the growing influence of the Tea Party and religious right forces within the party. When the creationists aim at driving science out of the classroom and Tea Partiers deny the threat of climate change, it is hard for serious conservationists to provide funds, votes or volunteer energy which will strengthen these forces of ignorance.
It’s not the flyer itself, it’s the character of the leader that would allow such a thing to go out that was the problem. At every turn, voters were reminded of his character in fractal fashion and allowed all to clearly see through the subsequent Island Values flyer and other campaign tactics for what they really were. Mufi was his own worst spokesperson.
I’m a happy guy, not a frequent event anymore when it comes to politics. I voted for Abercrombie and Schatz, who embody what I always admired about the Democratic party. I saw a couple of God’s anointed crash and burn … one of them a 747. Campaigning as God’s candidate is the lowest form of political sleaze there is, as far as I’m concerned. I believe in God too, but my God doesn’t endorse pols. Anyone who suggests that they deserve my vote because they look like me … well, in this country, we don’t have an office called reich chancellor or imperial wizard.
So when is the kumbaya?
I watched quite a few football games this weekend where the home team was winning comfortably at half time….only to eventually lose. Be careful Neil supporters with your glee, it might be a little too premature. Those nutty people who believe in and support god might have just enough votes in the general to beat your Neil god.
Anyone for tea, Joe the Builder? Lt.Gov. Adrienne King? Maui Mayor Marc Hodges?
Of course, I’m more concerned about the RIGHTeous Christians who crossed over to the Democratic ballot and handed Neil Abercrombie such a resounding victory over Mufi Hannemann to help out the GOP nominee (and Blake Oshiro against Gary Okino to help out the Christian in that race, and Brian Schatz to make sure no Righteous person was on the Democratic ticket). That’s just unacceptable.
Somehow I suspect God is not going to concern himself with the election of the Governor for the State of Hawaii, much less the Lt Governor. He (at least the Christian God and assuming He is a He) is more into the whole Messiah thing and that is not an elective office. But invoking God for your local election, war, jihad, crusade, or what have you, seems to be a permanent part of the human condition.
Also a divine being does not need “support”, he or she is not a political party, if you believe in one.
Then again, to be a bit of a naysayer, Neil is the guy who got elected to relatively high office 10 times … Mufi just once and just barely. Neil may just have been the more electable candidate, period.
One narrative I would like to challenge strongly is that social media somehow had a big effect in Neil’s win. I know a whole lot of people that voted for Neil that have nothing to do with social media and/or would never take a cue from it. If anything, from what I saw, Neil spent a little too much time pandering to the social media crowd to the detriment of his appeal to the traditional support base.
It may be perilous to do this in the general … the big money donors by and large are not social media people.
Whaddya mean? i’m an idiot, please explain “social media” to me.
Mufi had just about all the old guard that I see with Senator Inouye, and with that the funds – it didn’t work. He gave out over $100 million in rail contracts and he still didn’t get 51% in the Primary agianst Kobayashi, and it didn’t translate for victory over Neil in the Primary. That is pretty phenomenal – as I have said – again and again – Mufi has an “ick” factor. He needs to address it, or be forever the guy who is ‘appointed’ by the local powerbroker.
Mufi’s loss is simple. The economy is bad and because Mufi was the Mayor he shares part of the blame. Mufi tried to portray Neil as the outsider who hasn’t been around for twenty years. That played to Neil’s advantage. Duke will face the same challenge that Mufi faced, as one of the guys who was here when things went bad. Of course running a poor campaign as well as the anti-rail crowd painting Mufi as a bully didn’t help. Mufi’s own personal polls showed him to be within the error of margin, making him believe he was doing thing right. Because of this he failed to course correct is a significant manner. All in all this just wasn’t his time.
Old Diver, it’s not just the rail. It his jungle ways. He thinks he’s above the law and bullies his way through. You should watch the Koolauloa Neighborhood meetings. That Bryan Mick is planted there to bully and spread smears. The biggest controversy there is the hauula fire station relocation.
Saturday night, Mufi got thrashed by voters. Early Sunday morning, the eminent domain abuse protest signs at the commercial lot were vandalized and torn down. I don’t think it was Abercrombie winners who did that. It’s revenge time for them.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUgsD0EbYWI&feature=channel What transparency?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgEUy8L1yCs&feature=channel Where is the executive competence?