So Governor Lingle says she “may” run in 2012 for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Dan Akaka.
What do you think?
If Akaka runs for reelection, what do you suppose Lingle’s chances are? Why? Is the state’s Republican Party up to this kind of race? Is Ed Case likely to jump in again? And are there other viable Senate candidates waiting for an opportunity?
How different would it be if Akaka decides to step down?
The more background or explanation you can give to support your predictions, the better.
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Neither Akaka or Lingle should run.
It’s hard to see Hawai’i Democrats–who turned out fairly strongly when there wasn’t much to lose–not turning out at least as strong for a potentially legislative power-shifting election.
As for Akaka, he doesn’t seem to have any contraversial positions, so what could Lingle’s message be other than the (oft-rejected in Hawai’i) standard conservative rhetoric? I imagine that even her more RINO-leaning policies will be played down to attract mainland Republican money, which will make her even less popular in Hawai’i.
So her best shot would be to make it a youth/personality race–but then she’s on equal footing with Case, and how many times do we need to see people lose elections while running on the “get out the old boys” platform before we recognize that it just doesn’t work with Hawai’i voters?
One last thing–Lingle may run to raise her national profile and position herself for a cabinet spot in a possible Republican administration. That’s worked well in the past for a lot of politicians, so that would not surprise me much.
Heaven forbid Lingle get into that office and become another obstructionist to the development of progressive reform.
What is progressive reform?
Barring Little Dan’s shuffing off this mortal coil or becoming even less competent than he is now because of ageing issues, Lingle will become part of the GOP’s national political run in 2012.
Lingle would have a potentially strong case for election with the chance of a GOP takeover in the senate. She is an excellent fundraiser and hard campaigner.
That said, two things will doom her run: a) Abercrombie will appoint Akaka’s successor…..Mufi and
b) school furlough protester folks will drive her negatives across fifty percent in advance of her main campaign.
I visualize…….Lingle’s Hawai’i coming to a cable channel near you…;)
country kane hits the key– Linda wins head to head against (God love him) a tired Dan Akaka, unless the Democrats can get behind someone who gets a headstart on the election by being appointed to fill the seat of a voluntarily early retiring and beloved Dan Akaka.
Mufi may have hurt his chances by running for Governor. Mufi displayed the limitations of his appeal as a Statewide candidate this year — and unless he surrounds himself with better advisers (that he listens to during the campaign), I don’t see Mufi beating Linda easily.– Mufi simply couldn’t appeal to the changing demographics throughout the State and being the darling of the old guard of the Democratic Party in 2012 won’t cut it, even if favorite son Barack Obama is also on the ticket.
For all his problems with portions of the Democratic Party base, I think Ed Case would be the best candidate in the present field but I can’t see Uncle Dan stepping down for Ed Case to take his seat by appointment when good old Ed couldn’t do it by primary challenge. Ed may not be able to raise the money if he doesn’t have support of the powers that be but he matches up better with Linda in making easy acceptable moderate comments.
I think both Mazie and Colleen lose to Linda if they leave to take her on– Linda is just better talking and pitching and campaigning (I hear Mazie and Linda are both stiffs on the campaign trail. I love her dearly but I have never heard Mazie deliver a succinct talking point that doesn’t sound canned, makes sense and resonates with the average person. And while I respect HanabUSA intellectually, Colleen’s chopping hands and lecturing just bothers the heck out of me). But Colleen will get a chance to show whether she can work as part of the minority in the House.
My dark horses, though, would be some younger Democrat who can develop a high profile in the next year– someone that can build seniority for Hawaii rather than the baby boomers I’ve listed above– like a Shan Tsutsui who as Senate President can set the legislative agenda early while the House continues to squabble over old boy Calvin Say and young old gal Sylvia Luke, or a Brian Schatz who will get a chance at showing whether he can work the beltway to help the state budget.
A free for all Democratic primary — with or without Dan Akaka — will of course tip it to Linda who can sit back with a pot of gold and wait for the damaged winner (earlier Primary in August 2012, too) to face her in November 2012.
Despite a ‘nothing’ eight years as Governor, I think Lingle would be a formidable candidate. Most voters recognize that Akaka is past it, and contributing very little in the Senate. Hawaii’s end of the deal is still in the hands of Senator “Just call me Dan” Inouye. Thus I think Akaka is vulnerable and that LL can dig up the money and support to scare the hell out of us Democrats. The only good news is LL usually runs terrible paid-media campaigns. Have you considered an Akaka resignation culminating in a LL-Mufi war?
I’m always amazed at Lingle’s ability to be at the right place at the right time. No more Duke or Djou means continued party control. Considering Akaka’s age and Lingle’s campaign expertise—Lingle wins (unless a younger and stronger Democrat–Hirono, Hanabusa, Hanneman, Case, unknown, is hand-picked by Inouye).
Hawaii Republicans will be fighting (as usual) over a Lingle led “trickle-down” approach to party growth (getting Lingle elected to U.S. Senate benefits the party as a whole) or a grass-roots ” bottom-up” approach (rebuild the party by electing more State House and Senate members). Considering Lingle’s eight years as Governor resulted in less Republicans in the legislature, most Hawaii GOP loyalists will groan to themselves “not again”. But in the end the opportunity of electing a Republican to the U.S. Senate from Hawaii will allow Lingle to raise huge amounts of mainland money and retain control of the Hawaii GOP hands-down.
Senator Akaka is genuinely loved by people from all over the islands, as was proven by the alliance that came together to support his reelection in 2006.
That network of people who were brought together with respect for Senator Akaka is still intact and has learned a lot in the mean while, many working together on both the Obama and Abercrombie campaigns, both of which resulted in landslides.
We all saw the numbers in the Abercrombie-Aiona race, and Ms. Lingle would be irrational to take any encouragement from them.
To those who aren’t paying attention to our Senator, I’d like to remind you that he was wise enough to realize there was no reason to go to war against Iraq. He was one of the very few who voted NO when that was an unpopular vote to make. Anyone who cares about veteran’s health care and benefits should also be very grateful that Dan Akaka is your Senator.
I would bet a cup of coffee that the Republican party will find someone willing to run against Dan Akaka, but that Linda Lingle will decide not to sacrifice the time and money needed to lose spectacularly to our most loved legislator.
Lastly, I’d like to remind people that age alone does not diminish mental faculties. Dan Akaka was smarter and sharper and more pono than 73 of his Senate colleagues, most of them his junior. When Ed Case started deriding Senator Akaka for his age, the people who were raised with local values of respect for kupuna drew back in disgust and he lost a lot of support. That is not a wise path for anyone who wishes to win, not just make headlines.
Respecting kupuna solely for their chronological achievement never made sense even in traditional Hawaiian culture. Like everything of value, “kupunahood” is earned and Dan Akaka, while being an extraordinarily nice man, merits no particular consideration for being 86. He has been a cipher for years, valued mostly for the symbolism of part of his racial ancestry, and essentially functions as Inouye’s second vote. Ed Case was right to run against Akaka even if the people of Hawaii made a poor decision in retaining him.
If Lingle runs for Senate I will oppose her for the same reason I opposed Djou for House.
The Akaka bill is the most dangerous threat facing Hawaii, far more important than all other issues combined.
Given a Democrat and a Republican who both favor the Akaka bill, I would rather send the Democrat to Washington. All the Dems in Washington already favor the Akaka bill, while nearly all Republicans oppose it. If we send someone wearing the “R” label to washington, that “Republican” will be able to persuade other Republicans to vote for it; whereas those other Republicans would not bother to listen to a Democrat supporting it.
Senator Akaka goes into a well-deserved retirement and Hanabusa runs for Akaka’s seat.
Oh, and keep in mind that 2012 is Obama’s re-election so the turnout among Dems will be higher than it was this year.
Many good comments thus far but, despite your entreaty to give background/support/explanation, I will just say it’s too early to say and the question is, therefore, almost an academic one.
Had the election been this year, no doubt she would have lost (to either Inouye or Akaka) because her negatives are so high. But in the next 12-18 months, without the tough decisions that are the burden of governing, she will be able to shake off much of the negatives, burnish her image, and reinvent herself. If she overcomes her tone deafness (scoffing at the need for a Superferry EIS even after the predicted judicial outcome came to pass; sucking up to national Republicans during the 2008 presidential campaign like some sort of Palin-lite caricature, denigrating Obama, who at least was born here, as somehow less than local than she, and leaving downticket R’s to fend for themselves; refusing to even see the Furlough Friday parent protesters, belittling them as political pawns, and having them arrested; etc.) and reinvents herself as sensistive to local people/issues, while placing them in the larger national context, she might be a formidable candidate. If not, fuhgeddaboutit!
So, ask this question again in 12-18 mos. Time will tell.
It is way too early and the only thing one can expect is the unexpected, but Hawaii’s electorate is changing and there is a need to run to the middle.
If Senator Akaka chooses not to run, our two representatives both represent the old time Dems and might not be attractive to the middle. They also campaign like cement dries (with apologies, they do need a political makeover. They are up against American Idol and America’s got talent. It says more about us than them, but there you have it.). Anyway, a Democratic party looking to protect and expand its base and a very wise and thoughtful junior Senator, IF he decided to retire, might annoint Ed Case as his successor. Ed needs to limber up a bit but he is more central, is local and might best be a transitional, triangulational figure between the traditional and the Obama Dems.
But anything could happen. Muffi has some big bridges to rebuild and if he did that. . . Or the old Dems might just play the party line and trot out Colleen as next up to bat and win. Sort of like North Korea’s succession.
Lingle. Linda disappointed so many people in so many ways and many of them were personal. I think these will be remembered. If she runs with national Republican support, well that certainly worked well in the last election. If she doesn’t, she will need a house cat for company.
Basically the Dems need to move on. Lingle needs to move out. If the Dems don’t watch it however Hawaii might flip, like Alaska did, from Dem to Republican, as demographics change.
“Governor Lingle says she “may” run in 2012
What do you think?”
I think my feelings toward the snake den that is politics is perennially validated.
For someone to take things like this so casually and assume she may with ease, wait till the last minute… is an insult to everyone who involves themselves in this charade and continual downward spiral known as “the voting process”
First, I don’t think Lingle runs against Akaka unless the political environment is such that most people reflect on Lingle’s last years as being a a net good thing. This is only likely to happen if the economy worsens, taxes increase, government worker and private sector pain increases and the economy worsens more (not that these have to be correlated or related to the new governor’s actions — they would just have to happen).
The state republican party has proven itself again and again to be irrelevant. If Lingle runs, she is the party because she is the only one that has ever accomplished anything of real substance.
It’s hard for many Lingle haters to recognize it — but the appreciation for Linda Lingle will continue to grow over time and she is not likely to jump into any race that she can’t win. She will be a United States Senator representing Hawaii at some point in the future. When she does this is yet to be seen, but time is on her side.