So Governor Lingle says she “may” run in 2012 for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Dan Akaka.
What do you think?
If Akaka runs for reelection, what do you suppose Lingle’s chances are? Why? Is the state’s Republican Party up to this kind of race? Is Ed Case likely to jump in again? And are there other viable Senate candidates waiting for an opportunity?
How different would it be if Akaka decides to step down?
The more background or explanation you can give to support your predictions, the better.
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Regarding my comment that Lingle is the only person to accomplish anything of real substance for the state republican party, I should have said — in recent times.
I think Lingle is the only viable candidate for Senate on the GOP side. That said, she has some real challenges ahead of her if she is to remain viable. The national GOP has willfully relaxed its grip on reality in order to benefit from two passionate and irrational movements which have swept through segments of the US population: the Christian Right and reactionary populism (aka the Tea Party).
Keeping these movements alive, AND UNDER THEIR CONTROL, helps the Republicans resolve an ongoing problem for them. Their economic agenda is blatantly in service to the very wealthy and the corporations, so how do they gain enough votes in this truncated democracy to win elections?
Lingle, as a Jew and a person with “a discreet private life,” is an awkward fit in the modern GOP. And there are many potential hazards for her if she tries to become a player on the national GOP stage.
There are ways she can survive at the national level, but which may not play well back here in Hawaii. As the former Governor of Obama’s “home state,” she will be expected to play a role in undermining Obama. She badly mishandled the Obama matter when she was rude to him during the campaign and after he was elected. I think that error lost her the goodwill of a lot of local people. Not because we LOVE Obama in some irrational way. But because we were proud of him and were offended by the gratuitous rudeness she displayed. If she replicates such behavior at the national level, it will undercut her viability for the Senate.
Lingle is wooden and not particularly likable on the podium or on camera. If she wants to raise her profile as a talking headon rightwing TV shows, she’ll have to have somemarketability which is not obvious to me. Her BFF Sarah Palin will undoubtedly give her some favorable airplay, but will that relationship help her if the Tea Partiers don’t warm to her?
2012 will be a presidential election, so voter turnout will be higher than it was this year, a year in which Hanabusa defeated Charles Djou, a more personable guy with less negative baggage than Lingle. That victory might persuade the OBN around Team Inouye that they can run Akaka again and win. Or that they can plunk behind Colleen and boost her up into the Senate, opening up a House seat (for whom?).
Mahina is right that Senator Akaka is “genuinely loved” by many people. And she knows I have great affection for the Senator myself. But if even I am succumbing to the argument (“realization”?) that the Senator deserves to spend his last years at home, basking in that aloha, I suspect support for his reelection may have eroded enough for him to be defeated by Ed Case in a primary challenge. Regardless of whether Inouye approves or not.
Could Hanabusa defeat Ed again in the Democratic primary, this time for the Senate? Probably. Would Ed agree to return to the House instead–a good place to bide his time for Inouye’s seat? That would probably be a good move.
Would Colleen defeat Lingle, mano a mano, in a US Senate race? Depends. Depends on who makes what missteps over the next two years. Depends upon how much corporate money will come flowing into the state for that election. I hear some gnashing of teeth about the Citizens United case, but I don’t think we have yet developed an appreciation for how much of a factor that money will be in 2012, once the infrastructure for delivering the money is fully in place. The money appears to be going OVERWHELMINGLY to Republicans. (I have seen different figures. One said the money went 11 to 1 to GOP candidates). The function of both parties will shift in response. The GOP will have difficulty remaining relevant vis a vis the operations already set up by Karl Rove, Norm Coleman and the Chamber of Commerce.
OK, I’ve rambled enough.