I’m not at all sure what should be said about the dueling polls this past week on the Schatz-Hanabusa primary race.
There was an independent poll from Civil Beat along with polls by each of the candidates.
Hanabusa’s poll of primary voters put her in a significant lead. Both Schatz campaign and Civil Beat polls showed the race a toss-up at the present time.
This appears to look pretty good for Hanabusa, who is technically the challenger in this race.
But….
A comment left here by a reader sometime back noted:
I received a fundraising mailer from the Hanabusa campaign a few weeks ago which cited internal polling from February that put her a full 20 points (!) ahead of Schatz, including being ahead in virtually every demographic group.
Hanabusa’s own poll now shows that lead cut in half, if I read it correctly.
According to an article about the polls in Politico:
A source familiar with the survey said the full poll data showed Hanabusa “leading in every county except Honolulu where she’s running close to even.”
That seems to run counter to what other observers predicted.
Veteran Big Island newsman Hugh Clark commented recently:
Hilo, Kona, Wailuku or Lihue ain’t Honolulu. Surprising the negative vibes for the former senate president from Neighbor Islanders is not being weighed at all.
The Schatz poll reportedly shows “Hanabusa is the better-known candidate, but among voters who know both Democrats, Schatz leads 47 percent to 34 percent….”
These early polls aren’t focusing so much on horse race numbers, but on finding out more about likely Democratic primary voters and how to get them to break in the candidate’s favor.
Civil Beat has made their full poll questionnaire and results public and available online.
I haven’t seen any similar disclosure by the campaigns, so the meaning of their results remains ambiguous.
But they all clearly suggest an interesting race ahead.
Discover more from i L i n d
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
And Happy Independence Day to you, too!
About 75 Schatz supporters took part in the Kailua Fourth of July Parade. It was incredible to hear folks yell/shout/cheer as Brian stopped dozens of times to give folks hugs & handshakes..
It’s 13 months before the Primary, but the response to Brian’s presence in the Parade made my day.
Interesting reaction for supposedly ‘Republican’ Kailua – but parade-watchers may be a pretty hard-to-categorize bunch.
Otherwise, perhaps what the polls say is that so many changes in the Dem lineup have occurred over such a relatively short time period (in incumbent years, if you know what I mean) that respondents may not yet have wrapped their heads around SENATOR Schatz and WANNABE SENATOR Hanabusa. Issues in the campaign at this point are probably more emotional than rational, and one hopes that a real discussion will begin in due time.
Early polls are pretty much useless, more so with the demise of telephone land lines and dubious measuring techniques that backfired badly in last Presidential race.
Even the guys at Gallup now admit their assumptions were erroneous and outcomes flawed.
Hawaii has been infamous for alleged front runners tumbling in the real polling,
As a sports fan, it is akin to watching the top ten in college football. Good debate fodder in September but highly irrelevant by November.
Interesting that hanabusa according to her poll leads in every county except Honolulu….where 75% of the state resides…
Oh, and the county where she is the current congressional district representative and where her constituents know her best.
Why even report on polls at this point of the campaign?
They are usually self serving if reported by the candidates or meaningless if reported by a previously discredited Civil Beat polls’
Brian is young….so he has staying power for the distance in the Senator’s seat — Hanabusa is not. The issue is IF a large percentage of the AJAs will decouple from Hanabusa, Brian will have to give them many reasons to do that. I personally think that he has more than a large chance. I really am annoyed at Hanabusa for moving to vacate from a sure Congressional seat…creating this horse race. Its very unnecessary and costly — who is advising her?
Daniel K. Inouye. Even death has not stanched his influence.
Polls this early out ARE important. Candidates have to prove to themselves and potential supporters that they have a good chance at winning. Both Schatz and Hanabusa have to knock down their opponent’s spin that the other lacks much support.
Hanabusa is undoubtedly feeling pressure from some important players to remain in the House. I think we saw that with the HGEA decision to endorse Schatz. They would have endorsed her for “her” House seat and would probably still LOVE to do so at this point. The HGEA rationale is shared by many groups within the broader group of Democratic campaign contributors and commun ity organizations>
Schatz, OTOH, has to prove he has broad enough support to withstand an all-out assault by the old Democratic establishment. And that his base of support is broader than the Governor, who appointed him>
The current poll numbers accomplish the needs of both camps, though Hanabusa was surely wishing her optimistic numbers would not be being disputed by the Civil Beat and Schatz results.
I dispute that Civil Beat’s polling has no credibility. They called some races very closely in the past when others were WAY off. Yes, they got some wrong, notably the Mayor’s race, so they (and the rest of us who are willing to be objective) have to try to determine where they went wrong. To their credit, they are the most forthcoming and transparent of all the polling operations. They release their questions, their methodology and their cross-tabs so their results can be “peer-reviewed” (if you will).
The recent kick-off rally for Hanabusa at Bishop Museum was interesting in showing how much her base of support is limited to what used to be called “the Machine Democrats.” The one exception was the presence of Ben Cayetano and that may be significant. Ben has probably displaced Ed Case as local Republicans’ “favorite Democrat,” due to his work opposing the Rail system. And Republican voters are going to play a significant role in determining who gets the Democratic nomination. Obviously, some Republican voters will be repulsed by Hanabusa’s embrace by the “Good Old Boys,” which will drive some to vote for Schatz. Which response dominates in GOP circles will help pick the next US Senator. IMO.
The fact that Schatz was one of the 26 Senators that signed onto to the letter complaining about NSA domestic spying tells me he gets it. I lean conservative. Shatz is the type of liberal I am comfortable voting for.