A new Civil Beat poll found that while voters aren’t wild about Honolulu’s rail project, a convincing majority back completing the project to Ala Moana Center.
It has cost much more than expected, its completion date keeps getting pushed back, and there is not enough money to pay for it.
What’s more, most people think building a rail line for Honolulu was either a “bad idea” (37 percent) or a “good idea” yet “troubling” due to the poor execution of the project (44 percent).
Only 14 percent of Oahu voters surveyed completely embrace rail and believe it is “progressing well.”
And yet, a clear majority (61 percent) say they want the rail line built all the way from East Kapolei to Ala Moana Center.
Just 29% said the project should be stopped at a point short of Ala Moana. That’s a somewhat surprising 2-1 margin in favor of pushing the project to completion.
So while rail opponents have been very vocal, the mostly silent majority seems to have the votes to keep the project moving.
A couple of the cross tabulations reported shed additional light on the split between rail supporters and opponents.
The data on “ideology” shows those who described themselves as “liberal/progressive” were more likely than conservatives to say rail was a good idea, and less likely to say it was a bad idea.
Similarly, Democrats were only about half as likely to say rail was a bad idea compared to Republicans and Independents.
If you browse through the Civil Beat survey results and find more interesting tidbits, please share!
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I’m surprised that normally intelligent people would take this poll seriously. There were only 100 respondents — too small a number to be reliable for O’ahu with a population of a million. The statistical margin of error must be huge. But aside from the small sample size, the sample itself was horribly non-representative. The statistic that jumps out at me is that the percentage of ethnic Filipino respondents in the sample is only half the percentage of ethnic Japanese in the sample, despite the fact that in the most recent Census the Filipino population of Hawaii was actually larger than the Japanese population. Perhaps the gross underrepresentation of Filipinos is due to the fact that they have a higher portion of their group who are first-generation immigrants and therefore are probably harder to contact and might not speak English very well, by contrast with the ethnic Japanese. But why am I struggling to create excuses for the polling company or the Civil Beat writers who relied on it? Any polling company worth its fee has a duty to assemble a statistically significant sample size and to perform outreach to underrepresented groups and to provide Ilocano or Tagalog interpreters. Poor old Pierre is not getting his money’s worth, and the Civil Beat writers making use of the poll should have easily noticed what I have noticed, and should have included a disclaimer in every article based on this poll.
I read the Civil Beat article. It says 832 people took part in the poll.
What can we expect when no one even asks about the option to quit or when options are limited?
I just participated in a poll yesterday, and one of the questions gave me four options, none of which I supported. It was a computerized call, and it just kept going in a loop until I finally chose one of the four.
Surveys and polls are only as good as the questions asked.
“people who may be the least likely to take the train once it’s built — voters making over $100,000 a year — actually support the project.”
Of course. They want others to take the train so they can drive on less crowded roads.
As the train gets delayed further and further, it becomes more and more likely that the combination of self-driving vehicles, ride-sharing services, and perhaps some other nascent technologies will eat into potential ridership before the train becomes operational.
BTW, does anyone else think the C&C should look into contracting a ride-sharing service to run the Handivan?
zzzzzz, it sounds like you believe privatization leads to better outcomes than publically-run endeavors. The link below is for your consideration:
Privatization May Be Worsening Inequality by Liz Farmer|October 13, 2016
A new study suggests outsourcing government services can disproportionately impact low-income users’ finances, health and safety.
http://www.governing.com/topics/finance/gov-privatization-inequality.html
I’m sharing the link only because I read the piece yesterday and don’t have a better link at the ready.
Natalie, options are always going to be limited.
Making a choice when you don’t particularly like the options happens all the time in the lives of adults.
More specifically, the journey to improve Honolulu’s mass transit began decades ago.
Our decisions today and the rail project we are building are the result of many cumulative decisions over many administrations. Lots of individuals articulated the view that they knew what was best for Honolulu.
Projects that costs time and labor to investigate but fail to be implemented aren’t going to produce *successful* outcomes.
It took years to do the environmental analysis, pass legislation, and litigate challenges to elevated rail.
It will take years of construction. Repeat this process for any other option.
The public has been waiting for a VERY long time for a transportation solution to materialize.