There are a lot of interesting tidbits buried down in the latest Civil Beat poll results.
Overall, Governor David Ige has cut the comfortable early lead enjoyed by Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa down to a relatively tight 6% (“Civil Beat Poll: Hanabusa Leads Ige By 6 As Primary Draws Closer“).
Two months ago, Hanabusa enjoyed a 20% lead.
Both polls focused on likely voters in the Democratic Party primary.
This seems to indicate Ige’s barrage of low-key television ads has influenced voters.
However, as Civil Beat notes, Hanabusa leads among Caucasian, Hawaiian, and Filipino voters, three of the largest voting blocks. Ige holds a slim lead among Japanese voters, but within the poll’s margin of error.
The poll found there are still a lot of undecided voters, more than enough to swing the election.
In the fragmented field of candidates vying for the post of Lt. Governor on the Democratic side, Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho Jr. leads the way by slim margin. Carvalho has the support of 19% of likely primary voters, with Sen. Josh Green staying close with 16%.
Overall, though, a third of voters remain undecided on which of the LG candidates will get their votes.
Meanwhile, the Hawaii State Teachers Association, with represents some 13,000 public school teachers, doubled down on underdog candidates by endorsing newcomer Sherry Campagna over Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard.
Earlier, HSTA endorsed Gov. Ige over Hanabusa while polls were showing him trailing the challenger by a wide margin.
The Primary Election will be held on August 11, 2018.
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It seems unnoticed but except for HSTA, all of the major unions have endorsed Hanabusa. Am I wrong?
At this date, you are incorrect unless you have info that is not yet public.
There are no Gov candidate endorsements on HGEA or UHPA pages at this time.
https://hgea.org/its-political/elections-2018/endorsements-2018/
https://www.uhpa.org/legislative/uhpa-endorses-jill-tokuda-for-lt-governor/
I remember the last election where the CB poll was frankly way off………I remember Djou having a 10% lead and then losing by 10%. Neil and Ige poll then was way off as well compared to the final result.
Do the Ironworkers and Masons Union count as major unions?
My fervent hope is that aloha for the common good, strong character values, and personal integrity will prevail over self-service and self-interest. Pretty sure the contrast is just that stark.
I’ve been getting political poll phone calls this season. Besides the usual questions, they want you to respond to statements supporting or opposing the candidates, tell them how convincing each statement is, then tell them whether you’ve changed your mind yet based on the statements they’ve read to you. Is this a thing now? It leaves an unpleasant taste.
Push polls. Not really designed for polling, but for very thinly disguised advocacy. It’s a disservice to the real pollsters out there and likely undermines their efforts.
Thank you! I didn’t know the term. I can see that in principle they’re unlike real surveys, but in practice I’m not sure I can tell them apart.
Last night’s version asked about issues for Congress, opinions on First District Democratic congressional candidates, and respondent demographics. Suggested issues for Congress included national security, roads, housing, Medicare, drug use, over-development, disaster preparedness, taxes, infrastructure, and the train. Positive statements about several candidates were offered for consideration. Negative statements were only about the two front-runners. None of this and all of it, taken together, pointed to advocacy for a particular Muppet. Er, candidate.
All polling have left a bad taste since the 2016 Presidential whereby Hillary was ahead of the Donald, but still lost. The pollsters say Hillary’s lead was within the margin of error in all the polls. So review all polls with a grain of salt.
I participated in the poll. I knew it was the Civil Beat poll because the question at the end was whether I would like to talk with a CB reporter.
The poll led with a peculiar question about one’s feelings about Donald Trump. This was an extremely bizarre question. I found it to be intrusive and offensive.
Admitting to be supportive of the President of the United States is probably one of the worst things one could do in the liberal dominated world of Hawaii. I have seen columns in Civil Beat along with photos that appear to shame Trump supporters. There is no reason to participate in this poll in a meaningful manner. I can’t say my answers were accurate because I have learned to hide my true feelings lest be found out that I am not a peg that fits in your hole. I will never participate publically in politics in Hawaii. Likewise, I will never share how I am going to vote with anyone. Trump was elected to smack you guys with a large dose of Alinsky. I can’t say you all don’t deserve it.
EVERY dang election I feel like media does a disservice to everyone by sharing polls without explanation that these are campaign tools that can identify trends that may be helpful to the candidates.
Polls can help with messaging if done before and after a media blitz. A well-designed poll can help to pinpoint whether the messaging is effective.
And yes, feel free to decline participation if you don’t enjoy the idea of being a lab rat.
Polls do NOT (with the most emphasis I can convey) tell you who is going to win cuz the deciding outcome comes from human bodies who actually vote.