The latest Rasmussen poll finding the governor’s race a tossup has gotten lots of media attention in the last 24 hours.
Rasmussen has previously been accused of bias in favor of Republicans, summarized in this Wikipedia entry, although most criticism seems aimed at issue surveys rather than election polls.
Several web sites follow poll results, including TPM Polltracker and Politico’s Polling Center.
I would say that it looks like the money being poured in by the Republican Governors Association has contributed to movement in the numbers. As independent ads aimed at countering the GOP barrage start to air, more changes are likely as we wobble towards election day.
The Republican Governors Association has set up a Hawaii 2010 PAC, which has reported contributions received January 1-September 3, and September 3-18.
As of September 18, it had $377,289.73 in the bank and ready to spend.
Heavy hitters for the Hawaii Republican Party this year through September 18 include Stanford Carr Development ($10,000), Alexander & Baldwin HIPAC ($25,000), Poseiden Properties (Duncan MacNaughton, President, $10,000), Bank of Hawaii ($12,500), Vic Hejmadi (President, Universal Semiconductor Inc., $16,000), Hawaii Management Alliance Association ($19,750), AB & Associations Insurance Services ($12,500), First Wind ($15,000), A-1 A-Lectrician Inc ($17,500), and William Delaney (President, Worldwide Environmental Products, $15,000), Jeffrey Stone ($10,000) and Leighton Mau ($10,000).
Congratulations to Akaku for having their coverage of a gubernatorial forum rebroadcast by C-SPAN this week.
And you might also be interested in an analysis of the House Republicans’ “Pledge to America” by OMB Watch.
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I haven’t commented in a while, but I wanted to say that I find your election coverage very interesting. I’m making the move to Oahu in a couple of months so I’m going to miss the actual election, but I’m glad to have some idea of what will have gone on beforehand.
Thanks!
the Civil Beat poll has the race 47-44 with 8% undecided — Rasmussen has similar number but just 4% undecided (this number seems low)
Abercrombie’s carries some anti-Washington baggage … Aiona carries some anti-Lingle baggage
it’s hard to gauge grass roots efforts among religious v. civil rights constituencies
this one still leans Abercrombie — but remains too close to call
You didn’t mention the Daily Kos/ Public Policy Polling numbers:
http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/10/2/HI/10/uMymt
A good thing about PPP is that they disclose their actual questions and share their raw data. They also have some breakdowns by ethnicity, age and gender. But some of their ethnic categories are too mainland to be very helpful. All Asians are lumped together as “Asian.” And they use “Hispanic,” which can be troublesome here. If you are Portuguese and given the choice of Caucasian, Asian, Hawaiian or Hispanic, how do you respond? And from my past experience, some Filipinos might opt for “Hispanic” over Asian.
Despite those glaring flaws, the breakdowns do provide some insight into what is going on.
Oh, and they have it slightly pro-Neil 49-47, with 4% undecided. All within the margin of error.
I suspect the big mainland bucks flowing in to support Aiona may be able to fool enough people into thinking he is a nice, caring guy. It is Neil supporters who need to “Rise and Shine” and help ensure Neil win this thing in the couple of weeks remaining.
Jeff Stone’s $10,000 gift to GOP Hawaii stands out. How much of that money will be spent to help Djou defeat Stone’s longtime pal Colleen Hanabusa?
I’ve posted a webpage making voter recommendations, with detailed explanations, for people who oppose the Akaka bill.
http://tinyurl.com/2bfgdy
Readers familiar with my conservative/libertarian views will be surprised that I’m asking people to vote AGAINST Charles Djou. He gave an interview on OHA’s radio program strongly supporting the Akaka bill and explaining convincingly why he would be much more successful in pushing the bill than Hanabusa. I believe he is correct about that, and therefore I recommend a vote against Djou.
The following candidates get my support because they strongly oppose the Akaka bill: U.S. House District 2: John Willoughby. U.S. Senate: Cam Cavasso. OHA: Jackie Burke and Keali’i Makekau. State Senate: Sam Slom.
For Governor: Both Abercrombie and Aiona strongly support the Akaka bill, so I set that aside. I’ll vote for Aiona to check the power of the Democrat-dominated legislature, and because I believe his obvious conflict of interest as an ethnic Hawaiian will make him more careful than Abercrombie when giving away state lands to the Akaka tribe if the bill passes.
(I’ll vote for Aiona to check the power of the Democrat-dominated legislature.)
This is a simplistic description of the legislature. The Democratic Party is an accept all comers party which means it ranges from conservatives to liberals. Every ideal and idea the Democratic party represents. Libertarians are thinly veiled conservatives. Kinda like voting for someone even though he’s not your brother, but just your distant first cousin.
Yes, the Republican party is now made up of radical rightists, often wingnuts. I don’t know how Djou avoids getting painted with the wingnut teabagger brush, but he is one, straight down the line.
The latest poll may not mean that an Aiona victory is imminent but the loss of momentum by Abecrombie’s campaign is undeniable.
Apathy and overconfidence on the part Democrats are certainly factors. Some of Neil’s supporters may feel that the outcome has already decided in the Primary. Another factor may be that neither candidate has made a real effort to woo over former Mufi supporters. A significant number of whom may decide to sit out the General because they do not feel like they have a vested stake in the outcome. Aiona supporters, however, many of whom have ties o the outgoing Lingle Administration, have a more personal stake in the outcome and will more likely vote. For those reasons, a low voter turnout will likely be to Aiona’s advantage.
We certainly will get the government we deserve.
Didn’t Duke get God’s endorsement? That’s a tough one.