Perhaps the most surprising thing in David Ige’s landslide victory was that it was clear in the very first printout that he was going to walk away the victor in the gubernatorial race. The second surprise was Mark Takai’s decisive lead in the 1st Congressional District race. I think his advertising was very effective at conveying his likability quotient, which proved effective in contrast to Senator Kim’s hard edge.
The primary results can be downloaded straight from the Office of Elections in various forms.
Nancy Cook Lauer (www.allhawaiinews.com) was up early (or very late) and provides links to seven media reports on Ige’s win.
I would add Roll Call’s coverage (“Hawaii Primary Results: Hurricane Iselle Delays Force Brian Schatz, Colleen Hanabusa to Wait“), and a short piece from The Hill (“Hawaii governor loses Democratic primary“).
It’s interesting to go back and read a couple of stories that appeared in the national media prior to yesterday’s voting.
The NY Times (“2 Hawaii Democrats Face Tough Primary Challenges“) and National Journal (“Hawaii Gov. Abercrombie Just Might Lose His Primary“). Disclosure: I’m quoted in the latter story.
Meanwhile, it doesn’t appear that the dual storms had an impact on voter turnout.
In 2010, the most recent gubernatorial primary, election turnout was 293,016 or 42.8% of registered voters.
The almost final report from the 2014 primary put turnout at 285,471 or 41.4% of registered voters.
When the voting in the two storm-delayed precincts is over, it looks like this year’s numbers will be very close to the 2010 turnout, despite the obstacles.
Speaking of the two precincts, I just looked at the Office of Elections website and don’t see any information about the situation in Puna. Am I missing something obvious there, or is the info missing in action?
I took a look at the results of the U.S. Senate race in precincts 4-03 and 4-04, adjacent to the two precincts where voting was delayed.
Here’s how the votes broke in those precincts:
| Precinct 4-03 | ||
| Schatz | Hanabusa | |
| Precinct vote | 161 | 144 |
| AB/walk-in | 43 | 46 |
| AB/Mail | 160 | 129 |
| Precinct 4-04 | ||
| Schatz | Hanabusa | |
| Precinct vote | 175 | 107 |
| AB/walk-in | 48 | 44 |
| AB/Mail | 154 | 133 |
| Total | 741 | 603 |
Obviously, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the two delayed precincts will break the same way, but it does seem to indicate that Senator Schatz has a lot going his way in that part of the state.
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Late in the evening, I saw a TV interview with a state elections official who said that voters in the two Puna precincts will receive ballots by mail. (I did not catch everything said in that interview. It was noisy at Schatz headquarters last night.)
According to an article in the Washington Post, 3,900 people in those two precincts voted in the 2012 elections.
It must be a terrible mess down in Puna. Here’s a link to a series of photos that tell the story:
http://hawaiitribune-herald.mycapture.com/mycapture/enlarge.asp?image=52617062&event=1832232&CategoryID=73202
My two and a half cents:
1) It is as I said in a previous post about Rep. Faye Hanohano and the Puna district. Largest ethnic bloc are Caucasians, by far. And mostly transplants, at that. Don’t think that Hanabusa will get much mileage talking about preserving Inouye’s legacy with those voters. Highly doubtful that Hanabusa will get the needed 65% or so from those precincts to overtake Schatz.
2) Can’t believe Ron Mizutani actually wished William Aila luck in hoping that the next governor re-appoints him as DLNR head. So much for his journalistic credibility.
3) Not once, but twice, Nancie Caraway grabbed the mike from husband Neil Abercrombie while he was speaking. Oh-Kay. In case anyone was curious about why Neil has never campaigned with Nancie and only trots her out publicly at election night rallies,…. AFTER the votes are in.
4) Wow! I never knew Ken Inouye was such an articulate speaker in interviews. Spoke more to the media last night than in all the years while his father was alive. Wonder if Ken was one of those children who couldn’t/wouldn’t say much of anything publicly because the late senator was domineering father figure type.
With these results, it is very clear that Duke Aiona would have a lock on the governor’s office if Ige didn’t step up to the plate. Now, the democrats have legitimate chance.
Here from the always reliable and entertaining Robert Thomas is the first election law analysis that I’ve seen: http://www.inversecondemnation.com/inversecondemnation/2014/08/hawaiis-hurricane-senate-primary-election-let-the-games-begin.html
Thanks. I was just going to post a link, and you did it for me!
HI IAN,
FOR STARTERS, who was that “lame-o” political analyst on Hawaii New Now last night?
He was so bad I found myself actually longing for Dan Boylan–now that’s bad. You should make yourself available to one of the television stations for election coverage and analysis.
After giving Joe Moore and KHON a try I finally settled in at KITV and was pleasantly surprised. Neil Milner was the official “political analyst” and seem to know what he was talking about. KITV also had Ed Case as the Democratic Commentator and Dylan Nonaka as the Republican Commentator and both gave good insights. Finally, Paula Akana and her co-host kept the right tone all night long. I’m sorry, but the talking heads in the studio at Hawaii News Now came across as way to caffeinated.
IGE AND TSUTSUI IS NOT what I call a balanced ticket. Every gubernatorial team in Hawaii’s history had some sort of racial or gender balance.
Haole Burns picked Japanese Ariyoshi who picked Hawaiian Waihee who picked Filipino Cayetano who picked female Hirono.
Should the Ige campaign be concerned?
WAS I THE ONLY ONE surprised to see Norman Miziguchi on television last night?
Anyone know what his role is for the Schatz campaign?
WELL, it’s been said that voters will see a new and improved Duke Aiona this election year. That Duke is rested, at peace with himself and his family, and after years of reflecting, is a more calm and confident public speaker.
Sorry, but if his interviews on the local news stations last night is any indication, he still comes across as a “babbling idiot”. It’s the same old Duke Aiona.
On the other hand, Mufi hasn’t lost a step since being away from office. From what I saw and heard last night, Mufi is still a good public speaker that knows how to get his point across. Whether or not people trust or believe in him is another issue all together.
The Puna district’s previouse State Senator’s were Kokubun and Levin, home to house member and the America’s first elected black Mayor the late Helene Hale. They lean heavily left. It’s a large majority of baby boomer “old dope smokin hippie’s” to quote myself…Abercrombie land-Puna! Schatz + 20%.
Here’s my Puna friend’s description of the two-precinct electorate . “Japanese are few and far between among the mainland transplants (largely retirees and carpenters from the boom times) Filipinos (farmers and hotel workers) and Hawaiians. There are lots of Oahu transplants who came to the Big Island because they could afford to buy or build a home. We have our share of drug dealers and low lifes, but there are also PhD astronomers, dentists, MDs and other professionals in the mix. It is like Waipahu, Waianae, and even, along the coast, a bit of Kahala. It is eclectic.” We were joking that whoever promises a generator on every block will win. Good fun this but only if Schatz wins. Otherwise big time habuteru.
HuffPost:
The progressive advocacy group MoveOn.org is urging its members to support Hawaii Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz over “quasi-Republican” Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, also a Democrat, in the state’s competitive Senate primary election on Saturday.
In a Friday evening fundraising email, the group invoked the specter of former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, a Democrat turned Independent who often caucused with Republicans, to bash Hanabusa on issues dear to progressives.
“Hawaii Senator Brian Schatz is a strong progressive who Elizabeth Warren called ‘precisely the kind of Democrat we need fighting to level the playing field for working families,'” the email read. “But his Wall Street-backed primary challenger, Representative Colleen Hanabusa, voted to cut Social Security, supports drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and undercut President Obama’s plan to raise the minimum wage to $10.10 an hour.”
The sharply worded email also said that MoveOn members had a choice to make — either help elect a Warren-style progressive, or a “terrible, conservative” Democrat more comfortable “running in the Republican primary.”
…………………
If Ige and Tsutsui are not a “balanced ticket” because of ethnicity, then how did Abercrombie and Schatz manage to win last time?
A “conservative Democrat”. Oh, the horror!
Michael in Waikiki might be interested in knowing that in the 50th state, gubernatorial candidates do not *pick* their running mates. Indeed, LGs have to run on their own and be selected by the voters. The very notion that Waihee picked Cayetano in ’86,…. LOL! Cayetano ran for LG thinking he was going to be triumphantly holding hands onstage with Cec Heftel. But where that pairing might have been awkward, it had nothing on the Burns-Gill ticket, the political odd couple of the century, if ever there was one.
David might also be interested that since statehood, not every winning gubernatorial ticket was racially “balanced,” as he defines it. Besides the aforementioned Burns and Gill pairing of ’66, there was the AJA duo of George Ariyoshi and Nelson Doi in ’74. And just 4 years ago, Abercrombie and Schatz was victorious.
Speaking of candidates’ ethnicities, it should be noted: David Ige is of Okinawan ancestry. Okinawa may politically be part of Japan today, but has its own origin, culture, and traditions, just as Hawaii is distinct from the mainland USA.
Also, who’s running on the GOP side? Duke Aiona (Hawaiian, Chinese, and Portuguese ancestry) and Elwin Ahu (Hawaiian and Chinese). Is that racially balanced? I leave that Michael and the rest of the peanut gallery to decide.
So Hawaii kicked out the old hippie governor and is letting the old hippies on the side of the Big Island that will fall into the ocean decide who is the next senator. Interesting.
I am Punatic! Hear me roar!