Star-Advertiser reporter Gordon Pang has an excellent story this morning explaining the newspaper’s new poll results showing Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell running behind former Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona in a hypothetical mayor’s race (“Aiona, still undecided on a run for mayor, is on top for now“).
Pang summarizes the results–Aiona was ahead with 43%, while Caldwell stood at 38%. The story then provides basic information about the poll itself.
The Hawaii Poll, conducted by Ward Research Inc. Dec. 28-Jan. 9 on cellphones and landlines, included 433 registered voters on Oahu. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.7 points.
The story then relies on former Honolulu Advertiser Editorial Editor, Jerry Burris, to put the results in context. And Burris does an excellent job.
Burris described Caldwell’s current poll numbers as an understandable byproduct of being in office and confronting hard issues.
“Every decision a chief executive makes and accumulates makes someone happy and someone unhappy,” he said.
Aiona, on the other hand, has been out of the public eye, so hasn’t generated any recent negative news.
I also really liked Burris’ comment on City Council Chairman, Ernie Martin, who drew support from just 8 percent of those responding to the survey.
Burris said he was surprised with Martin’s numbers. “The numbers don’t look good for him,” he said. “Around City Hall, and among the chattering classes, he’s very well known. But out there in the general public … he’s not that well known.”
I don’t know whether “the chattering classes” is a Burris original, but it’s a great phrase with lots of suggestive explanatory value.
Finally, the story is accompanied by the full poll results with cross-tabulations that break down the numbers further.
All in all, an excellent presentation of these early polling data. Thanks, Gordon.
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Mayor Aiona. LOL.
It’s hard to imagine what Aiona brings to the table besides name recognition. And his recent comment about tearing down the entire rail project being a real option was plain nuts.
That said, Caldwell has been a huge disappointment on just about everything. The roads are still a big mess. The number of miles repaved has actually decreased in each of the last couple years, and the potholes are still way out of control. Public restrooms, homeless, trash, all bad news. But he’s sure collected a lot of money from the “right” people to fend off a challenge.
Martin comes across as just another obstructionist playing politics, but he could probably force a runoff, which could be very interesting.
Chattering classes are getting replaced by Best Lunch Ev-errrrr Facebook Troglodyte classes. They live in phone caves. Voting takes away from texting time.
A B C ~Anyone but Caldwell (but I really hope it’s not Aiona)
Can we go with “None of the above”?
Auberon Waugh, son of Evelyn, was the first to use the term, unless he lifted it from somewhere else.
1). Oh boy! Here we go with another Aiona campaign that starts off promisingly, but will gradually be undermined when voters are reminded yet again that the man is a flyweight when it comes to creating policies and selling them to the public. His personal background and judiciary resume was good enough to get him elected to a position with largely ceremonial responsibilities. But it wasn’t good enough to get him elected governor two times previously. And I don’t think it will be good enough to get him into Honolulu Hale either. Does he really want to put his family through the grind of yet another major political campaign?
2). On the surface, Martin’s 8% showing is appallingly low. The only bright spot he has is that the same poll indicates that a high percentage of people either never heard or know relatively little about him. But when people outside his district get to know more about him, will they like what they hear?
http://www.civilbeat.com/2013/06/19271-hud-was-ori-loan-forgiven-because-of-campaign-contributions
http://www.hawaiifreepress.com/ArticlesMain/tabid/56/ID/4688/Convicted-Cocaine-Dealer-replaces-Advertiser-columnist-as-Ernie-Martinrsquos-Campaign-Treasurer.aspx
If anyone becomes a threat to the status quo, millions will be spent to crush them.
“With nearly 300 concrete columns planted firmly in the ground from East Kapolei through Central Oahu and nearly six miles of guideway built on top of them, most Oahu residents now say they think rail construction should proceed, the latest Hawaii Poll shows.”
Thanks Ian!